Anthony Smith vs. Jimmy Crute UFC 261 Betting Odds, Pick & Prediction (Saturday, April 24)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Jimmy Crute.
- Anthony Smith and Jimmy Crute of Australia go head-to-head Saturday on the main card for UFC 261.
- Both men are known to go for the finish and oddsmakers have this fight listed with a 63.9% chance to end inside the distance.
- Sean Zerillo previews the matchup, including where to find value on Crute's moneyline odds.
Smith vs. Crute Odds
Two hard-hitting light heavyweights will kick off the Pay-Per-View portion of UFC 261 when No. 6-ranked contender Anthony Smith faces No. 13-ranked contender Jimmy Crute.
Smith is coming off a submission win against Devin Clark in November and his past nine wins have been by TKO or submission. Crute has lost just one fight in his UFC career and all of his wins have been finishes.
Of the five fights on the main card, oddsmakers project this fight as the most likely to end inside the distance.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Smith | Crute | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 34-16 | 12-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:03 | 5:12 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/26/88 | 3/4/96 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.94 | 4.36 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.38 | 2.31 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.49 | 4.33 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 75% |
| TD Def | 51% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 2.4 |
To a degree, Crute is still an unknown quantity within the light heavyweight division. He appears to be the goods — with dominant pressure wrestling (4.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, 75% accuracy) and powerful striking (4.36 strikes landed per minute, +2.05 margin) — but a number of quick finishes have led to questions about his gas tank in a high-level matchup.
Smith haters can point to some relatively appalling metrics (51% takedown defense, -1.44 significant strike differential), but "Lionheart" has been fighting the best in the world for years and Crute is still on his way up.
In a five-round battle, I might give more credence to the Smith side. He's a crafty veteran who has, "found ways to win" when he's needed to.
Despite the discrepancy in the striking metrics, Smith is the more technical man on the feet. Crute needs to employ his ground game early, and Smith hasn't shown the requisite resistance to stop that pressure.
Smith vs. Crute Pick
If Smith stuffs the takedowns from the jump, or if Crute starts to tire in round 2 after a hot start, Smith will come alive in a hurry.
But if Crute is methodical with his approach, and avoids emptying the gas tank, he should win from top position or coast to a decision.
I projected the Aussie at 69% in this matchup, and I would bet Crute's moneyline at -195 or better.
However, since the price has moved past that point, I prefer Crute as a parlay piece at -210 or better.
The Pick: Parlay: Jimmy Crute / Kamaru Usman (-115)
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