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UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy: Focus on This Total (Saturday, January 21)

UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy: Focus on This Total (Saturday, January 21) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Lauren Murphy

  • Female flyweight contenders Jessica Andrade and Lauren Murphy meet on Saturday's UFC 283 main card.
  • Andrade is a sizable favorite, and the odds for a finish are higher than most women's bouts.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup and looks for a betting angle for the fight.

Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy Odds

Andrade Odds
-475
Murphy Odds
+380
Over/Under
 2.5 (-115 / -115)
Venue
Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro
Time
10:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

It’s former champ vs. former title challenger when Jessica Andrade meets flyweight Lauren Murphy on Saturday’s UFC 283 main card.

Andrade is on a 3-1 run, which included a recent strawweight win over Amanda Lemos. Murphy, meanwhile, is riding high after her recent win over former titleholder Miesha Tate.

Is heavy favorite Andrade the right play? Let’s break it down.

Tale of the Tape

Andrade Murphy
Record 16-5 23-9
Avg. Fight Time 14:33 9:31
Height 5’5″ 5’1″
Weight (pounds) 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach (inches) 67″ 62″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 7/27/1983 9/25/1991
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.84 6.16
SS Accuracy 40% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.45 5.16
SS Defense 58% 53%
Take Down Avg 1.11 2.85
TD Acc 34% 55%
TD Def 71% 66%
Submission Avg 0.1 0.5

Unlike Andrade’s recent opponents, Murphy is a big flyweight who will own a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage in this matchup.

The line presumed that Andrade should have a significant power and physicality advantage in this matchup and a big speed advantage.

However, Murphy’s size could pose problems for the Brazilian, and I suspect she can stay safe and keep the fight more competitive than the moneyline price suggests.

The betting markets consistently underrate Murphy. She has a well-rounded skillset, shows good cardio, and has proven challenging to finish.

There’s a chance she can take Andrade down, consolidate the top position, and kill some clock.

Andrade vs. Murphy Pick

While I’m not betting on Murphy to win the fight, we are banking on her ability to keep the proceedings competitive. And Andrade possesses the vast majority of the finishing upside.

Murphy by decision (projected +682, listed +750 at BetRivers) and Andrade by decision (projected +141, listed +165 at DraftKings) both align with my projection on the fight reaching a decision (projected -119, listed +105 at BetRivers).

However, we’re going to stick with that bet on the Over 2.5.

The Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-113, 0.5u at BetRivers)

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