Read our UFC 328 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Prudential Center in Newark. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 328 Moneyline Projections
UFC 328 Prop Projections
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
UFC 328 features the first-ever title fight between two fighters born in the 2000s, and it also features a lightweight bout between two men old enough to be their fathers. That would be the veterans King (nee Bobby) Green and Jeremy Stephens, who are both 39 years old with over 50 pro MMA fights to their name.
Green has been continuously employed by the UFC since 2013, going 15-12-1-1. Five of his 12 losses have come via knockout, including twice in the last couple of years. Stephens made his return to the promotion last year when they came to his native Iowa, went back to BKFC, where he had been competing and was TKO'd by Mike Perry — and is now back in the UFC for this fight with Green.
At this point in their respective careers, both men have taken and delivered a ton of damage. They've largely struggled when facing grapplers, preferring to trade on the feet when possible, which is probably why this matchup was put together. Crucially, both seem to be more motivated by chasing bonuses than by winning. Green allegedly had $300,000 of jewelry stolen by at ex-girlfriend, while Stephens has gone on record with his concerns about fighter pay.
I don't think either man has any delusions of climbing the rankings or fighting for a belt, and with performance and fight of the night bonuses bumped up to $100,000 in the Paramount+ era, we are very likely to see an old-fashioned brawl between these two. I'm not sure if Stephens is even eligible for bonuses after missing weight by four pounds –but I'm also not sure Stephens knows that weight misses typically disqualify you.
Neither has the speed or reflexes of their younger years, but power is the last thing to go, which makes this a perfect storm in terms of both men taking damage. Stephens had also been finishing in consecutive UFC losses before his bout with Mason Jones in Iowa, but I'm suspicious that Jones was perhaps intentionally carrying Stephens to the final bell, rather than finishing the veteran in front of a home crowd.
Either way, given the motivations of both men, I think this one is a long shot to go all 15 minutes. I like the price on the Under 2.5 rounds (+124) better than ends inside the distance (-105) personally, but I wouldn't fault anyone for paying the extra 30 cents of juice to "buy" the last half of a round, either.
Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds +125 (DraftKings)
