Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon Odds
| Miller Odds | +220 |
| Gordon Odds | -270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-195/+150) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Miller vs. Gordon pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Miller | Gordon | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 38-19-0 (1 NC) | 21-8-0 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:46 | 10:53 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 68" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/30/1983 | 9/6/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.92 | 5.64 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.44 | 4.14 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.50 | 1.78 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 32% |
| TD Def | 48% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 0.0 |
Miller vs. Gordon Pick, Prediction
Northern New Jersey native Jim Miller will extend his record for most UFC fights with his 46th walk to the octagon on Saturday, in a matchup against New York's Jared Gordon.
Gordon (9-7 UFC record) is both the younger man and the more efficient striker (+1.2 to -1.0 differential per minute at distance), but the soon-to-be 43-year-old Miller can still crack, and is arguably the more durable fighter.
Either man can land a finishing blow on the feet against an opponent well above the median age bracket for the division, and both are deadly submission grapplers who can lock up a club and sub after hurting their opponent.
Most importantly, Gordon is both five years younger and the better control grappler across all datapoints (74% to 44% control rate; averages 3.4 to 2.1 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance; 33% vs. 45% accuracy; 60% to 49% takedown defense); so long as he avoids getting clipped or sucked into a guillotine by Miller, I'd expect him to take over the fight against a wilting, older opponent.
I don't project an edge on either side of the moneyline, but I do like this fight to finish more frequently than the odds suggest; I set the finish chances around 47.5% (projected +110) compared to a three-round divisional average of 52.2% (-109 implied), and listed odds of +130 (43.5% implied).
I also show the correlated value either on Gordon by KO/TKO (projected +310, listed +400) or on Miller by submission (projected +960, listed +110). I would consider playing either of those individually, or combining those angles into a double chance prop (projected +195, listed +215 at DraftKings).
The simplest approach is to bet the ends inside the distance prop. And you can target Gordon live against his 43-year-old opponent, after Round 1.
Projection: Gordon (72.9%)
Sean's Picks:
- Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+130, 0.35u), FanDuel; bet to +120
- Jared Gordon Live after Round 1
