Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Odds
| Chimaev Odds | -575 |
| Strickland Odds | +425 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+124/-160) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, for a 13-fight card featuring a pair of title bouts, including a clash for middleweight gold between current champion Khamzat Chimaev and former champion Sean Strickland.
The Czech-born Chimaev is unbeaten in his 15-fight professional career, including a 9-0 record (6 finishes) in the UFC. Still, Saturday's bout will mark just his second career main event or five-round fight, after winning the belt over Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319.
Strickland, 35, has a 17-7 promotional record, including an 8-2 record in main events or five-round fights. Strickland is 5-3 when those fights have extended to the championship rounds, and Saturday's title bout will mark his ninth consecutive five-round booking.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 328 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these middleweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.
Here's my Chimaev vs. Strickland pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Chimaev | Strickland | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-0 | 30-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:11 | 15:54 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/1/1994 | 2/27/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.04 | 6.04 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.32 | 4.57 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.29 | 0.71 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 64% |
| TD Def | 85% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 0.2 |
While Sean Strickland has shown both excellent takedown defense (76%) and the ability to scramble off of his back when he is taken down, particularly in his last fight against Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez, Khamzat Chimaev is a different level of wrestler or grappler than he has become accustomed to facing at the UFC level.
Chimaev suffocates his opponents, averaging 9.7 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance and controlling 98% of his grappling exchanges. He's spent 67% of his cage time on the ground, and his striking numbers (43% striking defense, -0.8 significant strike differential per minute) read poorly because he's content to absorb damage in the pocket while closing distance to change levels.
Strickland prefers to work from a distance at a sparring tempo, spending 87% of his fight time at range and outlanding opponents by 1.4 strikes per minute by peppering them with jabs and teep kicks and staying safe defensively (60% striking defense). His gas tank is among the most reliable in the sport, too; he's gone the championship distance eight times without a meaningful drop-off in output. In fact, in his past four 25-minute decisions, Strickland has attempted more strikes in Round 5 in each of those bouts (averaged 84.3) than he did in any of the four preceding rounds (averaged 62.2).
Chimaev carries bigger power and may be the more durable athlete, but Strickland's technique and efficiency would win out in an extended kickboxing match between the pair. And he's often able to lull opponents into a sparring match at different points in extended fights. Chimaev wins if he maintains forward pressure and his gas tank holds up, but if Strickland can survive and resist long enough to get this fight to the later rounds, a window may open for him to pull the upset.
That said, even though Dricus Du Plessis ("DDP") controlled Strickland for only around two minutes, he still got him down seven times in 12 attempts across two fights. Chimaev is getting this fight to the ground early, and he has a better ground game than DDP. If Khamzat is landing 50% of his takedowns in this fight, he is either finishing or banking substantial control time. His last two appearances against Robert Whittaker and DDP — both of whom I consider better grapplers than Strickland — were dominant. And I expect him to be more proactive in finishing this contest than he was against DDP, where he ran a low-effort top-control plan over five rounds, banking minutes without forcing engagements against a dangerous athlete.
I don't think Chimaev respects Strickland — or his power — in the same way he respected DDP, and I'd expect him to take bigger risks on the feet and more positional chances on the mat to put his opponent away quickly in a potential star-making spot. Strickland has never been submitted, and his only knockout losses have been against the stone hands of Alex "Poatan" Pereira and via spinning wheel kick against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
The primary path for Strickland is to get up from early takedowns, make Chimaev work harder for each additional shot, and eventually force protracted distance exchanges, attacking with volume and body combinations as the champion's cardio potentially fades in the championship rounds.
Strickland is not a one-punch threat (seven knockdowns in 24 UFC fights and 12 career KOs in 30 wins; primarily through accumulation), and Chimaev knows he can sit in the pocket and look for a level change or overhand without absorbing significant knockout risk. Still, the cumulative damage of Strickland's pace over 25 minutes should make the scorecards close if this fight ultimately goes to a decision.
As a result, I think there is generally a Chimaev-early, Strickland-late dynamic to this matchup, which dictates a specific pre-fight betting strategy before a potential live bet on the challenger.
Chimaev vs. Strickland Pick, Prediction
I projected Khamzat Chimaev as a -415 favorite (80.6% implied) in this matchup, compared to a near-86% market implied probability with his odds at -600 (opened -425). As a result, I show a small edge on Sean Strickland (projected +415, listed +460 at BetRivers). Still, I'm almost certain that you'll find a better number on the underdog in the live market, with the peak price (if he ultimately rallies) likely coming after or during Round 2.
A Same-Game Parlay (SGP) with Strickland and the Over 2.5 Rounds pays around +525, which I believe is the majority of his win condition. However, that price is not substantially better than his moneyline, and you may get a better number in the live market by that point in the fight anyway.
Playing an SGP with Chimaev and the Under 1.5 Rounds (+190) and/or Under 2.5 Rounds (+110) is likely better than laying the juice on the favorite. Chimaev only pays off his steep price tag with a quick, dominant finish or a similarly dominant control-based performance as he had against DDP, and I doubt we see a repeat of the latter.
If Chimaev doesn't finish within the first 10 minutes, you can factor in the pace to that point, along with the current body language of both fighters, to decide whether a live entry on Strickland is appropriate.
Sean's Picks: SGP: Khamzat Chimaev & Under 2.5 Rounds (+110, DraftKings) | Sean Strickland Live after Round 2
