Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov Odds
| Alvarez Odds | +160 |
| Amosov Odds | -192 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-215/+165) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Alvarez vs. Amosov pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Alvarez | Amosov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-3 | 29-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:52 | 3:14 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/2/1993 | 9/9/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.78 | 2.78 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.07 | 1.55 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.19 | 4.64 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 50% |
| TD Def | 47% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 4.6 |
Alvarez vs. Amosov Pick, Prediction
Saturday's welterweight prelim between former Bellator champion Yaroslav Amosov and rising contender Joel Alvarez is my favorite fight on the card.
Alvarez, a former lightweight, remains massive for the 170-pound division (3" taller, 2" reach advantage), and I'd expect him to continue to improve as he fills out physically in his new weight class.
I view him as the more dangerous striker in this matchup, but he's likely to accept the bottom position and hunt for submissions from there against Amosov, who is the better wrestler.
Alvarez has an extremely dangerous guard game, but Amosov is an educated grappler, and I'd expect him to stay safe from top position and to counter Alvarez's aggression by passing and getting to more dominant positions, where he can potentially lock in a submission.
If Alvarez can maintain distance and utilize his long limbs to hurt Amosov (particularly with knees and elbows on entry) or sink in a choke as Amosov shoots for a takedown, he can pull the upset. Still, Alvarez tends to end up on the bottom in all of his fights, and I do trust Amosov and his championship-level fight IQ to win minutes if this fight goes the distance, even though the Spaniard should land the more damaging strikes.
I show slight value on Alvarez's moneyline (projected +147, listed +160), but it's difficult to pull the trigger at a minimal edge when I rate both fighters so highly. I also don't see clear value in the odds for the fight to end inside the distance. Still, I do project an edge on either Alvarez to win by KO/TKO (projected +371, listed +750) or on Amosov to win by submission (projected +367, listed +515), which you can combine in a double chance prop (projected +135, listed +190).
You can play the double chance prop, but if you structure the individual winning method props together (Amosov Submission and Alvarez KO/TKO) to generate the same profit regardless of which wins, you can generate substantially better odds and expected ROI.
Meanwhile, continue to monitor the underdog moneyline to see if you can get a better price before fight time.
Projection: Amosov (59.6%)
Sean's Picks:
- Joel Alvarez wins by KO/TKO (+750, 0.08u), BallyBet; bet to +400
- Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission (+500, 0.12u), FanDuel; bet to +400
