Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis Odds
| Sabatini Odds | -166 |
| Gomis Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-166/+130) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Sabatini vs. Gomis pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Sabatini | Gomis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-5 | 15-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:03 | 14:33 |
| Height | 5'8" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/9/1990 | 6/13/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.69 | 3.48 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.09 | 2.76 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.48 | 0.86 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 38% |
| TD Def | 50% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 1.5 | 0.3 |
Sabatini vs. Gomis Pick, Prediction
Pat Sabatini is an elite grappler who has shown a suspect chin when hit cleanly, which has suppressed the moneyline price in his subsequent fights. The 35-year-old American has an elite combination of wrestling (averages 14.8 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance) and jiu-jitsu (88% control rate); both of his losses came when he tried to engage in striking exchanges rather than wrestle.
William Gomis is a fleet-footed Sanda fighter with a size advantage (4" taller, 3" reach) and a technical striking edge (+1.1 to -0.7 differential per minute at distance). Still, he doesn't carry significant power in his hands (his lone UFC knockout came via a body kick), and Gomis often fails to separate from his opponents on the scorecards (five career split or majority decisions).
Every opponent has taken down Gomis, but one that he has faced in the UFC (denied 21 of 29 attempts, 72%), and Sabatini is the best wrestler and grappler he has faced to date. Gomis also tends to leave his neck exposed in scrambles, and Sabatini will capitalize on those mistakes.
I'd expect Sabatini to land a takedown fairly quickly and either maintain top position or advance to lock in a body triangle. From there, Gomis will have to avoid getting submitted, try to scramble up, or wait out the clock and look to avoid getting taken down in subsequent rounds.
Sabatini should be able to dictate where this fight takes place, and so long as he doesn't stand in front of his opponent and try to exchange with a superior striker – as he did in losses to both Diego Lopez and Damon Jackson – I'd expect him to extend his winning streak to four.
I projected Pat Sabatini as a near-250 favorite and would bet his moneyline up to -230.
Sean's Picks:
- Pat Sabatini (-165, 0.5u), DraftKings; bet to -230
