UFC Austin Odds, Pick & Prediction for Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan: Take the Points in Main Event (Saturday, December 2)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Beneil Dariush
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan Odds
| Dariush Odds | +235 |
| Tsarukyan Odds | -290 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-130 / 100) |
| Venue | Moody Center in Austin, Texas |
| Time | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings | |
The UFC's lightweight division is absurdly deep – with Arman Tsarukyan and Beneil Dariush as Exhibits A and B.
Dariush was one fight away from a title shot before losing to Charles Oliveira while Tsarukyan's only losses in the UFC octagon are a controversial decision against Matuesz Gamrot, and to now-champion Islam Makhachev in Tsarukyan's debut.
Despite their impressive resumes, neither man has had a crack at UFC gold. That could change following Saturday's UFC Austin main event as the winner should walk away with a compelling case for a title shot.
Here's a look at the UFC headliner tonight with the Dariush vs. Tsarukyan odds and my prediction and betting angle.
Tale of the Tape
| Dariush | Tsarukyan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-5-1 | 20-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:16 | 13:37 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 156 pounds | 155.5 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/6/1989 | 10/11/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 36% |
| TD Def | 80% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.0 |
Getting the assignment to write this story was a true gift as it provided an excuse to watch tape on two of the UFC's most entertaining fighters.
Dariush and Tsarukyan have elite grappling ability, underrated (and constantly improving) striking, and excellent gas tanks.
We'll start with Dariush, who's currently ranked fourth in the UFC lightweight contender rankings.
Dariush got his start in combat sports in 2007 through jiu-jitsu, where he quickly became one of grappling's hottest prospects. He won world no-gi championships in 2008 at blue belt, 2009 at purple, and 2010 at brown before switching fully to MMA.
A black belt since 2012, Dariush has a jiu-jitsu lineage that is evident. Unlike many of the more scramble-heavy lightweights, he has a methodical approach with excellent top pressure and passing. His takedown accuracy and average are both misleading – he doesn't rack up many takedowns because his opponents rarely escape to their feet.
While his grappling is clearly his strength, Dariush has made improvements to his striking as well.
The knowledge that most opponents won't want to grapple with him enables him to open up with spinning attacks and kicks, daring his opponents to clinch in response.
Dariush also uses the threat of his own takedowns to set up his striking. He throws big overhand lefts from his southpaw stance, which he sets up by faking a takedown with his lead hand.
That's part of why his takedown accuracy is so low; many of his "attempts" are intended as feints to set up strikes – strikes that then serve to hide his takedowns, forcing his opponents to pick their poison.
Of course, getting Tsarukyan grounded and keeping him there is a monumental task. Tsarukyan is an elite grappler in his own right, though he relies on lightning-quick scrambles and absurd flexibility instead of patiently setting traps and slowly advancing positions.
Tsarukyan's takedown game is elite, and he's secured takedowns on every opponent he's fought outside of Christos Giagos – whom Tsarukyan knocked out in Round 1. That's a list that includes Makhachev and Gamrot – the latter of whom Dariush was unable to take down.
Tsarukyan's not as adept at keeping his opponents down as Dariush is, but he's more aggressive with strikes and submissions from the top.
Tsarukyan's striking game is also all action, with the Armenian darting in and out of range, throwing huge power kicks. At times it seems he almost wants his kicks to be caught, knowing he's likely to prevail in the ensuing scramble.
Unlike Dariush, he's generally unwilling to plant his feet and trade combinations, and he instead throws a strike or two before rapidly relocating and repeating the process.
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Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Pick
I was a bit surprised to see Dariush as such a heavy underdog here. His only loss in the past five years was to Oliveira – perhaps the only lightweight with superior BJJ – and Dariush holds a win over Gamrot, who in turn beat Tsarukyan.
Still, "MMA math" is a poor handicapping tool, and Tsarukyan is seven years younger than 34-year-old Dariush. We've likely seen the best Dariush has to offer while Tsarukyan continues to improve.
Ultimately, I expect this one to be decided by whichever fighter can dictate the pace.
In both striking and grappling, Tsarukyan prefers constant movement and wild exchanges whereas Dariush is better in a more calm, technical fight.
While Dariush lacks Tsarukyan's five-round experience, his style likely holds up better over 25 minutes. Tsarukyan took the opening two rounds from Gamrot but lost the final three as his ability to scramble diminished over time.
As a main event, Dariush vs. Tsarukyan is, of course, a five-round fight. If Tsarukyan is unable to finish Dariush early, the fight should get closer and closer as it wears on.
Still, Tsaurkyan could bank enough points in the early rounds to hold on for a victory here. That's why my favorite bet is Beneil Dariush +5.5, which is +120 at DraftKings as of this writing.
For Dariush to "cover" this spread, he has to see the scorecards and win at least two rounds. If the fight finishes with 48-47, 48-47, 48-47 scores for Tsaurkyan, that would make the overall tally 144-141. Tsaurkyan would officially win the fight, but with the +5.5 handicap, we'd win our bet (146.5 to 144).
An outright win for Dariush would also obviously cash this ticket.
I'd take that down to even money, and I would consider hedging with Tsarukyan to win inside the distance also at plus money.
The Pick: Beneil Dariush +5.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
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