NASCAR Betting: 2 Under-the-Radar Driver Matchup Picks for Las Vegas Race Weekend

After dodging mist and moisture in Atlanta last weekend, the Monster Engergy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS), XFINITY Series and Gander Outdoors Truck Series are heading to the desert for a triple-header at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

The MENCS will be running a new package that is attempting to keep the cars more closely bunched together, resulting in increased side-by-side racing and a more exciting event for fans.

Because of this, there are plenty of questions regarding what exactly the racing will look like and which drivers and cars will be best. I'm not overly enthusiastic about getting too heavy on the MENCS race because of these questions.

But that doesn't mean the race weekend is completely devoid of betting value. In fact, I'm targeting two XFINITY Series driver matchups in which oddmakers are not properly adjusting for the quality of equipment, and, in my opinion, have the wrong driver favored in each.

We talk about it often in other sports like college basketball: Winning bets on Robert Morris-Sacred Heart pay the same as winning bets on UNC-Duke. Similarly, winning bets on the XFINITY Series pay the same as those on Cup races.

With this in mind, here's a look at the two NASCAR matchups to lock down before cars hit the track on Friday.

Brandon Jones (+120) over Austin Dillon

We can debate into the wee hours of the morning whether Dillon is actually a good driver. If you can't already tell by how I land on this matchup, I'm not overly impressed by his ability in the racecar.

However, oddsmakers see a Cup driver entered in a lower-series race and immediately think of him as a legitimate contender. While this is normally true, most Cup drivers also drop down to the XFINITY Series in equipment provided by MENCS teams.

For example, Kyle Busch is also running the XFINITY race this weekend, but he's in the No. 18 car for Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR), the same team he drives for in Cup.

The powerhouse Cup teams, like JGR, have exponentially more money and resources, and therefore prepare faster cars than the XFINITY teams without Cup affiliations.

Dillon is piloting the No. 10 car for Kaulig Racing this weekend. Kaulig is a solid team, but certainly not on par with the likes of JGR. For example, in 103 XFINITY Series races, Kaulig has just one top-5 finish and only 23 top 10s.

On the other hand, Brandon Jones also drives for JGR, giving him a clear advantage over Dillon in terms of quality of equipment.

While there's not much historical data to analyze for Dillon and Kaulig — he's run just one race in the XFINITY Series for them in the past — Jones finished seventh in both Las Vegas races last year. If he can put up a similar performance this weekend, he should have no problem finishing ahead of Dillon.

I'd personally make Jones a slight favorite in this matchup, so getting him at +120 is an absolute bargain.

Austin Cindric (+120) over Austin Dillon

Bet, rinse, repeat. The reason I like Cindric over Dillon is similar as to why I favor Jones as well.

Cindric runs for Team Penske, another powerhouse MENCS team that fields cars for Brad Kesewloski (last week's Cup winner at Atlanta), Joey Logano (last season's Cup Series champion) and Ryan Blaney.

Cindric's father, Tim, is also the President of Team Penske, so you know Austin is provided with only the best of the best.

Cindric brings a significant equipment edge with him to Las Vegas compared to Dillon.

Austin also ran well at Las Vegas in last season's September race, qualifying second and posting the seventh-best average running position before ultimately finishing ninth.

And just like Jones, should Cindric have top-10 speed — which is what the data suggests — he's a fine bet to finish ahead of Dillon, especially at such an enticing price.

*All odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday at 12 p.m. ET.