Daytona 500 Odds: Best Bet Picks for Monday’s Race (February 19)

Daytona 500 Odds: Best Bet Picks for Monday’s Race (February 19) article feature image

Photo via Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin

Check out the latest Daytona 500 odds with our NASCAR best bets from our experts for the Cup Series regular-season opener.

The 2024 NASCAR season officially kicks off with the biggest race of the year: the iconic Daytona 500.

Originally scheduled for Sunday before weather forced a rescheduling, the Daytona 500 now takes place on Monday (4 p.m. ET, FOX). Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida, again plays host.

The Action Network's motorsports experts scoured the Daytona 500 odds board for value. And in one of the wildest and most wide-open races on the NASCAR calendar, opportunities can be found throughout the field.

Here are our favorite Daytona 500 picks and predictions for the "Great American Race," including a new addition from expert Jim Sannes that we added on Sunday afternoon.

As always, shop around for the best Daytona 500 odds since they can vary quite a bit from sportsbook to sportsbook.

Daytona 500 Odds and Best Bets

Denny Hamlin – Outright Winner (+1100)

PJ Walsh – Director, Subscription Content at Action Network

The Toyotas and their new noses have been the talk of the town at Speedweeks so far, and for good reason.

Toyota drivers Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell won their respective Duel races on Thursday night, both coming from deep in the field – Reddick started 19th of 21 cars while Bell started 16th of 21 cars.

I wouldn't blame anyone for backing both of these drivers in the Daytona 500, but I'm going straight to one of the race favorites instead: Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 winner and arguably the single-best driver when it comes to superspeedway racing.

He also drives the No. 11 for Joe Gibbs Racing which – yes, is a Toyota.

By betting on Hamlin, we're getting an all-time great superspeedway performer, driving what appears to be the fastest equipment in NASCAR's biggest race.

Pick: Denny Hamlin to Win (+1100 at BetRivers and bet365)

Martin Truex Jr. – Outright Winner (+2500)

Greg MatherneDirector, Sports Betting Content at Win The Race

Martin Truex Jr. hasn’t found Victory Lane at a drafting track in his career. But that doesn't mean he is bad at these tracks.

Looking to the weighted average running position stat from Win The Race’s Front Runners, last year he had the best average running position of any driver in the Cup Series (11.05). If we expand to 2022 and 2023, he has the fourth-best running position (13.29).

In 2016 Truex lost the Daytona 500 by inches to Denny Hamlin. He has been a contender in the race the past two years as well. He had double-digit laps led in both races before bad luck late in the race resulted in finishes in the teens.

After a lackluster single-lap qualifying performance on Wednesday, Toyota dominated the duels on Thursday night. In practice on Friday, the Toyota camp again looked like the class of the field.

If you don’t already have a strong Toyota position, my favorite single-driver bet is Truex at +2500 available at BetRivers and Superbook. I would take this down to +2200.

Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to Win (+2500 at SuperBook and BetRivers)

Ty Gibbs – Outright Winner (+2500)

Chase HoldenAction App partner and recent Speed Street Podcast guest

Over the last year, we have watched Ty (Tyrone) Gibbs truly come into his own in the NASCAR Cup Series. After winning Rookie of the Year in 2023, Gibbs rolls into 2024 with a new layer of confidence and swagger.

This weekend at Daytona will be the ultimate test for Gibbs, and something tells me he will pass. Since 2022, Gibbs has stacked two top 20s and one top 10 in 2023 at America's Superspeedway, and with a 15th-place starting spot and a fast new Toyota, I’m putting my chips on the table and betting on the win.

While you won’t find him at the incredible 29-1 odds I snagged him at on FanDuel earlier this week, you can tail the pick on a few books at 25-1 if you hustle. As of this writing, you can find +2500 odds at Betway and BetRivers, and +2200 at a few others.

The value, the skill and the fact that Toyotas are bulls is all the convincing you should need.

Pick: Ty Gibbs to Win (+2500 at Betway and BetRivers)

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Todd Gilliland – Outright Winner (+7500)

Jim SannesAction App partner and Managing Editor of Digital Media at FanDuel Research

I'm pretty nervous about Ford after the team didn't show a ton of life Thursday during the Duels. But I think the odds compensate enough for Todd Gilliland to be a value.

Gilliland has been a good pack racer for a while, notching top-16 finishes in four of six races last year. As a rookie, Gilliland had a solid top-10 run going in the Daytona 500 before an ill-timed Kyle Larson bump-draft ruined Gilliland's day.

Plus, as we've seen with his teammate, Michael McDowell, Front Row Motorsports has a superspeedway program that can generate wins.

My model has Gilliland at 2.0% to win, up from 1.3% at +7500 at FanDuel. Even with reservations around Ford, that's enough for me to pull the trigger.

Pick: Todd Gilliland – Outright Winner (+7500)

John Hunter Nemechek – Top 5 (+1000)

Cody GogginMotorsports Contributor at Action Network

Denny Hamlin is the only Toyota driver to ever win the Daytona 500, but I think that this year they could add a fourth Daytona 500 victory. Hamlin will remain competitive as always, but his teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing, as well as their counterparts at 23XI Racing and Legacy Motor Club, should all be in contention to take home the prize.

In four superspeedway races in the Cup Series, John Hunter Nemechek has finished in the top 11 spots three times. He hasn’t ever been victorious in a superspeedway race in any of NASCAR’s top series, but he typically does run toward the front of the pack.

This year Nemechek has a great opportunity as he comes over to Legacy Motor Club, which is joining Toyota for the 2024 season. This will provide a boost to the team, which should receive better equipment than what the team received as a lower-tier Chevrolet team in 2023.

At 80-1 to win the race, Nemechek is priced toward the bottom of the pack. In Duel No. 2 earlier this week, he showed that he could run toward the top of the pack as he came out of it with a fourth-place finish. I believe that JHN is underpriced here for what he can do with one of these Toyota machines.

I could see a sprinkle on him at 80-1 for the win or 20-1 for a top three, but I think that I will stick with taking Nemechek to score a top-five finish at +1000 as my best bet for this race.

Pick: John Hunter Nemechek – Top 5 (+1000 at BetMGM)

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Justin Haley – Top 5 (+900) & David Ragan – Top 5 (+1100)

Dale TanhardtNASCAR Betting Expert and YouTube Host

I’m staying true to my RFK (Roush Fenway Keselowski) energy. They were phenomenal at drafting tracks in 2023 and scored a driver in the top five in four of the six drafting tracks with a win and two runner-up finishes.

My favorite bet to win the Daytona 500 is Brad Keselowski, but my favorite prop(s) is to bet on a couple of his team/satellite cars that are great sleeper bets.

The pure analytics haven't been there recently for Justin Haley, who is a former Cup winner at Daytona and a two-time Daytona winner in the Xfinity Series. but I’m a believer in this kid’s talent. His superspeedway skills are very underrated. His No. 51 Ford is an RFK-supported race car, so I expect it to have speed this weekend.

David Ragan is the sharp veteran who comes back every now and then just to run these superspeedway races. His last four starts at Daytona have come on a part-time basis in the Cup Series. The results? Fourth, 37th, eighth, and ninth. Ragan is a smart racer who finds himself surviving and jumping in the mix late in these chaotic races.

Bet both and root for at least one to emerge from the smoke at the end of 500 miles. Haley can be found at +900 at multiple sportsbooks, including DraftKings and ESPN BET. You can find Ragan at +1100 odds at BetRivers.

Picks: Justin Haley – Top 5 (+900 at DraftKings) | David Ragan – Top 5 (+1100 at BetRivers)

Erik Jones – Top 10 (+175)

Stephen YoungHead of Motorsports Rotogrinders Network and cohost of Running Hot Podcast

With the move to Toyota, Legacy Motor Club is undervalued this weekend at Daytona.

The Toyotas have incredible pack speed and seem to be able to push a little better than the new Ford bodies. With the NextGen car, Erik Jones has a 25.3 average finish at Daytona in four races.

Jones is aggressive and has the ninth-best average running position in those races. He tries to go to the front, which is what we’re looking for with this new car. The speed is there this weekend, and if he’s able to avoid issues, he has the upside to win this race.

I’ve bet Jones to win at +3000 (.25 unit), and my model is showing value for his top 10 at +175. This has moved to +120 or shorter on most books.

Pick: Erik Jones – Top 10 (+175 at BetRivers)

Joey Logano Finishing Position: Over 10.5 (-110)

Nick GiffenPredictive Analyst at Action Network

My model has Logano's median finishing position as 16.5, so we're getting six full positions here.

That might sound crazy to you, but get this: If we look at the four premier superspeedway racers of the current era – Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney – their median finish at Daytona and Talladega since the move away from restrictor plates to tapered spacers after the 2019 Daytona 500 is just 15th place.

If we trim it to just the high-variance Daytona races, meaning either a Daytona 500 or a Daytona playoff cutoff race, the median finish does improve to 13.5, but that's still three places away from a 10.5 median.

However, looking at Logano alone, he's had more trouble finishing these races lately than his peers, with a median at Daytona and Talladega in the tapered spacer era of 16.5 – exactly what my model has projected. And if we just look at the high-variance Daytona races, his median finish is 24th!

There's no world in which Logano's median finish should be 10.5. Take the over.

Pick: Joey Logano Finishing Position: Over 10.5 (-110 at SuperBook)

Drivers Not Completing 100 Laps – Under 3.5 (+100)

Jordan McAbeeLead NASCAR Analyst at RotoBaller

Just like the Super Bowl, we get some fun prop bets to place wagers on for NASCAR's Super Bowl, the Daytona 500.

One that I am keying on is the number of drivers not completing 100 laps – or half of the scheduled distance – on Caesars Sportsbook. The line is set at 3.5 drivers with the under being at even-money odds.

While one early wreck could easily take out four or more drivers, we've also seen big superspeedway races be relatively calm until the later stages of the race since the introduction of the Next Gen car.

Looking at the eight big superspeedway (Daytona and Talladega) races with the Next Gen car, the under here has hit in six of the eight events, with the exceptions being the 2022 Daytona 500 – the very first official superspeedway race with this Next Gen car – and the first Talladega race of that year.

In that race, four drivers failed to complete 50% of the race.

Last season, the under in this prop bet went a perfect 4-for-4, and while there is bound to be carnage in this year's Great American Race, I'm betting that it happens later in the race.

Pick: Drivers Not Completing 100 Laps – Under 3.5 (+100 at Caesars)

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