Bucks vs. Pacers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 22, 2025

Tailing @PropBomb

Mathurin had everything working in his favor during Game 1. With the game out of reach by the third quarter, he saw extended minutes while the starters rested, and Obi Toppin’s early foul trouble created even more opportunities for usage. He got to the line eight times, but surprisingly, none of those came on drives, where he typically thrives (5.8 drives per game). That’s concerning. Milwaukee’s bench defenders are quietly strong and good with footwork headlined by Gary Trent Jr., AJ Green, and Kevin Porter Jr., all who can hold their ground and made life tough, forcing Mathurin into contested looks on the perimeter. Looking ahead to Game 2 with Damian Lillard returning, we could start seeing Mathurin’s role shrink. Indiana must counter Lillard’s scoring with their best perimeter defenders (Nesmith and Nembhard), meaning Mathurin, who primarily brings scoring off the bench, has the short straw, and could see a minutes squeeze if Neshmith is hitting shots. We already saw this play out March 15th, where Neshmith logged 36 minutes to Mathurin’s 12. And with books under 1.5 3PM at -210, the upside is limited, he's averaged just 12.6 PPG in five games where he’s played under 25 minutes with the starters active since 2/11 (him becoming the 6th man). Tough to back him here. #PlayerProps

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Typo - will be changed Bucks' offense still elite – 115.3 PPG, 48.6% FG, 38.5% from deep. Giannis drops 36 in Game 1, unstoppable in transition. Even on the road: 112+ PPG. 'Over' hit in 9 of last 12 overall, 7 of last 8 vs East. If Dame suits up, spacing and tempo explode. Pacers light it up at home – league-best 118.3 PPG at Gainbridge. 29.2 assists per game = elite ball movement. 48.8% FG shows efficiency, not just volume. Shot 52% in Game 1, spreading the floor and pushing pace. Weak D (114.9 PAPG) keeps score ticking. Recent matchup trend: OVER hit in 9 of last 11 in Indiana. Pacers play fast, Bucks can match and raise. Neither team defends at a high level – both bottom-half in points allowed.