Bucks vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - December 18, 2024

🔑 Dame Lillard 25+ points +125 (FanDuel) 2u This value is so crazy to me. He averages over this mark and has hit 25+ in 8/L10 games. Idk if we will get +money on this spot much more this year.

Prop of the Day

Bet365

Hit in 9/L10 games averaging 34.4 ppg in that span

🔑 Bucks ML +166 (FanDuel) 2u I’m fading the Thunder. Giannis has been playing unreal and Dame and him are starting to put it together. The Thunder are so due for a let down game. Love the value here

This matchup pits two strong teams against each other, but the edge lies with the Oklahoma City Thunder, particularly on the defensive end. OKC has been the best defensive team in the NBA this season, and their perimeter defense is elite. Lu Dort has consistently taken elite scorers like Luka Doncic out of their rhythm, and Milwaukee will find it tough to create consistent offense beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis can only do so much, and without reliable secondary scoring, the Bucks could struggle enough to matter. On the other side, the Bucks’ issues guarding opposing guards are well-documented, as they’ve allowed the most points to point guards this season. This opens up a massive opportunity for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), who is having an MVP-caliber season and should feast in this matchup. Milwaukee lacks a clear answer for him defensively, and SGA’s ability to create in the half court will be a problem all night. While Chet Holmgren’s absence hurts OKC’s rim protection, Isaiah Hartenstein has stepped in admirably and provides solid interior play. Additionally, OKC holds an edge in transition offense, an area where Milwaukee has struggled. If the Thunder can dictate pace and force the Bucks to scramble defensively, OKC should find efficient scoring opportunities. Ultimately, this game comes down to defense and matchups. OKC has the tools to slow down the Bucks while exploiting Milwaukee’s struggles defending elite guards. Lay the 4.5 with OKC Thunder.

Write up over at RotoGrinders

Jaaaaaay duuuuuuuuuub

I’m not a prop expert

#Tailing @JoeDellera

Sandy

The Thunder have a million wings to defend Dame, Middleton, AJ Green, etc for this spot; however, it's still brutal to defend Giannis. I would expect them to put either Jalen Williams or Isaiah Hartenstein on him; however, I think this is a spot where you live with whatever Giannis puts up and make sure you limit Dame, Middleton, AJ Green, and Gary Trent Jr from the perimeter. Hartenstein is extremely valuable as a help defender and his rebounding is incredible but he is still not strong enough to stop Giannis one on one. OKC should stay in single coverage to prevent those drive and kick opportunities. Giannis' median outcome in wins is 32 while in losses it's 30.5 so there is not a strong correlation between his scoring and winning. I like Giannis to score 30 points (-120 FD), a number he's hit in 70% of games this season.

Johnny

Follow me on X @PropBomb for more props! Pretty low line here. The NBA Cup concludes tonight with the Milwaukee Bucks facing the Oklahoma City Thunder at a neutral site in Las Vegas, where the atmosphere will be as intense as any regular-season game this year. Both teams are expected to play their starters for extended minutes, and the key thing I'm watching is Giannis Antetokounmpo's aggression on the boards. Last season, Giannis grabbed 19 rebounds on 27 chances in a game against Oklahoma City. He should see at least 37 minutes tonight and is coming off a strong 14-rebound performance against the Hawks in the semifinals. While Isaiah Hartenstein has somewhat helped in the rebounding department, the Thunder are still allowing the 9th most rebounds since his debut and struggle to contain bigs on the glass. From a statistical standpoint- Looking at Giannis' overall numbers including last season, he averages 12.53 rebounds in 32 games when playing 37-40 minutes alongside Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis. When filtering for games against bottom-15 rebounding teams, that number jumps to 13.3 RPG, with Giannis recording 12 or more rebounds in 14 of 18 games—a 77.8% hit rate. Positionally, Giannis is typically roaming on off-ball & low usage players shooters like Lu Dort, which allows him to sag off and focus on paint protection, especially against SGA and J-Dub. This approach helps avoid foul trouble and puts him in position for rebounds near the basket. With Brook Lopez battling Isaiah Hartenstein down low, I expect Giannis to benefit from weak-side rebounds, similar to the way Luka Dončić (11 rebounds) and Fred VanVleet (9 rebounds) did. These boards will help spark the Bucks’ transition offense. #PlayerProps

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