Mavericks vs. 76ers Odds & Betting Predictions - February 5, 2025

@TheDegenWeekly

Embiid is officially ruled in and expected to play around 30 MIN according to Nurse, which creates a nice angle here. Embiid plays a very heavy drop coverage defense off any kind of PnR/DHO action, which benefits guards like Kyrie. On the season, PHI AVG a 25.3% pullup FREQ%, which ranks 12th lowest. Over the last stretch of games Embiid was healthy (7 game sample size), that % jumped to 27.9%, which would rank as the 3rd highest pullup % allowed. Overall, Kyrie is over in 9/19 w/o Luka - AVG 24.6 PTS and 20.6 FGA. On the road his numbers jump as he takes on more of a scoring role, he's over in 7/12 - AVG 26.9 PTS and 21.3 FGA. When he plays a T10 team in pullup FREQ% w/o Luka he's over in 5/9 - AVG 21.4 FGA (skewed by one 13 FGA game vs. HOU). In the nine games, he took 21+ shots in 8/9. When Kyrie takes 19+ shots in a game (14/19 w/o Luka - 9/12 on the road and -2 below AVG), he's over this line in 14/20 games this season - AVG 28.75 PTS. Over the last stretch of games Embiid was active, PHI also allowed a 50.5% eFG% on pullup shots, which would be the highest % allowed compared to everyone's season long averages.

Over in 5/L6 games without PJ Washington, who was just ruled out 9.5 pts is available everywhere now

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