Should Bettors Fade or Follow 76ers-Celtics Line Movement?

All at once and in your best Mickey Mouse Clubhouse voice:

“What’s the worst day of the week that gets us all depressed? M-O-N-D-A-Y S-U-C-K-S!”

If you’re like me, you've got a case of the Mondays. You know what cheers me up when I’m feeling blue? An NBA bet with positive expected value. The line for Monday’s 76ers-Celtics (8:05 p.m. ET) series opener is changing. The total started at 210 and has been bet down to 208. Should bettors fade or follow this line movement?

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In the regular season, it has been profitable to bet the under when the line decreases by one or more points in a high total game (200 or more points): 1,325-1,205-39 (52.4%) ATS. This trend improves in the playoffs.

It is easier for an under to hit in a game with a high total and oddsmakers frequently inflate the line because casual bettors love cheering for points and the over. So, it often takes sharp money for a total to drop. That’s why since 2005, the under is 69-53-1 (57%) in the playoffs when the total is 200 or greater and decreases by one or more points.

Celtics-76ers

The pros like the under tonight. A steam move, an indication of sharp money, was triggered at CRIS on Sunday, helping to drive the line down. Celtics-76ers isn’t the only game that matches this system.

Bonus Pick

On Tuesday, LeBron and the Cleveland Cavaliers will travel to Toronto for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Raptors (8 p.m. ET). The total opened 218 at Pinnacle and has been bet down to 217. The under improves to 38-22 (63%) when the total is greater than 210 points like it is for Cavs-Raptors.

Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons