Five Prop Bets for Thursday’s NBA Slate

The NBA is back! There are six games to choose from on the first night back from the All-Star Break, and as usual the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool has identified a few props that stand out. Only one prop on today’s slate has a Bet Quality of 10 — the highest mark possible — but 14 bets have a grade of eight or higher.

Here are five bets that I’m eying on tonight’s slate.

Jonathon Simmons Under 16.5 points (-120 at Sportsbook.com)

This line almost seems too good to be true. Simmons has only cracked 16 points in one of his last 15 games, and the majority of those games have come with the Magic playing at less than full strength. They’ll welcome Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon back to the lineup today, which should eat into Simmons usage and potentially his minutes as well. The Knicks have been a dumpster fire since losing Kristaps Porzingis to an injury, but it seems unlikely that Simmons can go over 16.5 points given his current minute and usage projections in the FantasyLabs NBA Models.

Michael Beasley Over 17.5 points (-125 at BetOnline)

Speaking of the Porzingis injury, no one on the Knicks has been a bigger beneficiary with him out of the lineup this season than Beasley. He’s averaged 21.3 points in his last 10 games with KP out of the lineup, cracking the 17.5-point barrier in seven of them and just barely missing the cut at 16 in another two. The Magic rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season and Beasley has played 39 and 40 minutes in the Knicks’ two games before the All-Star Break.

Kris Dunn Under 6.5 assists (-143 at BetOnline)

Dunn returned from injury in the Bulls’ last game and has averaged 6.3 assists per game this season. Still, he figures to be somewhat limited after missing an extended period of time, and he played under 20 minutes in his first game back. He also spent a lot of his early games playing without Zach LaVine, who figures to take the ball out of his hands some when sharing the court. Cameron Payne is also expected to make his return from injury today, which could further limit Dunn’s impact in this contest.

JR Smith Under 11 points (-140 at Bovada)

Smith has eclipsed this threshold in five of the past six games, but I’m betting on some regression heading in his direction. He’s shot a 54.5 percent from the field and 54.8 percent from 3-point range over that time frame, both of which represent huge increases from his season-long averages. He could also potentially lose some playing time to Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson as both become more incorporated into the Cavaliers rotation.

Enes Kanter Over 12 rebounds (-125 at Bovada)

This is admittedly a big number to take the over on, but I still like Kanter’s chances today against the Orlando Magic. He’s an elite rebounder — his rebound percentage of 22.9 percent ranks fourth in the league this season — and the Magic have the third-worst team rebound rate. Kanter has played big minutes since the injury to Porzingis, hitting the 32-minute mark in three of the past four games, and he has averaged 14.7 rebounds per 36 minutes this season.