Wake and Rake: What the Sharps Already Bet in 76ers-Heat
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
We got away with one yesterday. Wednesday’s Wake and Rake highlighted the California-Stanford game in which early sharp action moved the Cardinal from -9.5 up to -10. Shortly after publishing, underdog buyback hit the market with the number eventually closing at Stanford -9.
In the game itself, Stanford jumped out to an early lead and never looked back, covering the number for early sharp bettors quite comfortably. While the record books show that bet as a win, the point of this column is to use the proprietary tools and data at The Action Network to identify early sharp action and approach betting similarly to how wiseguys do. Despite ultimately winning, professional bettors consider yesterday’s play a bad one due to the market’s reaction after getting money down. Still, as all bettors would, we’ll take the win and move on.
Professionals obviously are doing the same, highlighted by 76ers-Heat, which is already taking heavy action from sharp bettors. Let’s get to the details.
Bookmaker.eu opened Philadelphia as a 1.5-point road favorite vs. the Heat. and recreational bettors are favoring the 76ers. At the time of publication, 54% of tickets and 68% of dollars are on Philly, yet the line has ticked down to 76ers -1 at Bookmaker.eu, and has even flipped to +1 at Pinnacle, which is one of the sharper offshore books.
Our Bet Signals report that Buckeye, another very sharp book that accepts high-limit action from professional bettors, triggered a Reverse Line Move on Miami +1, causing the early movement.
The Action Network’s Thursday NBA betting guide offers some very interesting trends for this matchup, as well, helping explain why wiseguys like the Heat so much tonight.
Top Photo: Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons reaches for a loose ball against the Miami Heat; credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports