The Boston Celtics (7-2) and Milwaukee Bucks (1-8) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis. The game will be broadcast live on NBCS-BOS.
The Celtics are 12.5-point favorites on the spread, with the over/under set at 220.5 total points. The Celtics are -750 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Bucks are listed as +530 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into our Celtics vs. Bucks predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, November 8.
Celtics vs Bucks Prediction
- Celtics vs Bucks pick: Under 220.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Our Celtics vs Bucks best bet is on the under total points with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Celtics vs Bucks Odds
- Celtics vs Bucks spread: -12.5 (-118), +12.5 (-104)
- Celtics vs Bucks over/under: 220.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Celtics vs Bucks moneyline: Celtics -750, Bucks +530
Celtics vs Bucks NBA Preview
Boston Celtics Betting Preview
Boston arrives in Milwaukee at full strength, and it looks like the version of the Celtics that wins by controlling the game. Jayson Tatum sat out Wednesday's 109-102 win over these same Bucks and returned with a 34-point, nine-assist night in a 119-80 NBA Cup rout of Charlotte, a game in which Joe Mazzulla credited his shot selection and his defense in the third quarter.
With Tatum, Paul George and Derrick White, who led the Celtics with 24 in the first meeting, in the lineup together, they are projected to start alongside Jordan Walsh and Neemias Queta. Payton Pritchard, who left Wednesday's game with a shoulder contusion and an eye abrasion, is cleared to play, and only reserve guard Devin Carter is out. Milwaukee has no rotation players on its report.
The identity of this team is defense. The Celtics allow about 105 points a game, among the stingiest numbers in the league, and they outscore opponents by roughly 10 points per 100 possessions, a top-three mark. That has shaped how their games look. The Celtics have also won seven of their last eight against Milwaukee, including the last four.
Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview
Milwaukee has had a rough start, and the numbers show why. The Bucks have lost five straight, the latest a 121-107 NBA Cup loss to Toronto, and they have a habit of building leads and giving them back late, including against Boston, Washington, and Chicago.
Tyler Herro is carrying the offense at 22.3 points a game and shooting 42.6% from three, and Jaime Jaquez Jr., rookie Brayden Burries, and Kyle Kuzma give Taylor Jenkins some scoring around him. The part that has not worked is Myles Turner, who is averaging a career-low 7.6 points and went 0-for-7 against the Raptors.
The Bucks score about 110 a game while shooting 43% from the field and 33% from three, and defensively they allow more than 120 points per 100 possessions, fourth worst in the league. That leaves a team that is easy to score on and has trouble scoring itself, a profile that tends to produce lopsided games rather than shootouts. In Wednesday's meeting in Boston, Milwaukee lost by seven in a game that finished with 211 combined points.
Celtics vs Bucks Pick, Betting Analysis
The "Line vs. Public Unders, Road Warriors" system fits this game on every leg.
It targets early-season NBA games where the total has dropped from open to close despite heavy public action on the over, on the idea that the market overestimates early offensive output while sharp money corrects the number. That is what is happening here: 70% of the bets and 73% of the money are on the over, and the number has still gone down.
One line-movement tracker has the total opening at 222.5 and falling as low as 219.5, and the 220.5 available now sits below the 222.5 to 223.5 numbers other books have shown this week.
Both teams are only nine games into the season. The case for fading early-season scoring is also built into how these teams look: Boston's games have averaged about 220 combined points, in the range of this number, and Wednesday's meeting went 211.
The matchup pushes in the same direction. Boston is a defense-first team with the best defensive profile in this game, and Milwaukee's offense has struggled to score efficiently, shooting 43% from the field with its starting center struggling. A game that Boston controls is likely to be played at the pace Boston wants, with a favorite of more than 12 points managing the second half rather than chasing a score.
History points the same way. Seven of Boston's last eight games as a favorite against Milwaukee finished under the total, and everything heading into this matchup points to that trend continuing.
Pick: Under 220.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Celtics vs Bucks Betting Trends
