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Bucks vs Heat Pick, Prediction Tonight

Bucks vs Heat Pick, Prediction Tonight article feature image

Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat dribbles the ball against Damian Lillard #0 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the second half at Fiserv Forum. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Heat vs Bucks Pick, Prediction | Tuesday, Nov. 28

Tuesday, Nov. 28
7:30 p.m. ET
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 30.5 Points | Heat +3

Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs Bucks on Tuesday, Nov. 28 — our expert NBA prediction and betting picks for tonight.

This has actually been one of the best rivalries in the NBA.

Though I'm not sure it'll feel that way tonight unless everyone plays — more on that later.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-0 and atop Group B in the In-Season Tournament standings and the Miami Heat are 2-1, tied with the New York Knicks for second. However, the Heat squandered a 21-point lead against the Knicks on Friday, so they kind of need this. We'll get into whether or not they'll get this done.

Let's get to our Bucks vs Heat prediction and pick.

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Heat vs Bucks Prediction

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 30.5 Points | Heat +3

Milwaukee Bucks

Outlook on the Bucks

We were all hard on the Bucks earlier this year, and they're quietly 12-5 as we get closer to the quarter-mark of the season. After toiling around the bottom half of the league in net rating, they're up to +2.8 and 11th in the league.

Though, if we're being honest — as we're figuring out who's real and who isn't — the Bucks don't have too many impressive wins this season. You beat whose on your schedule, yes, but this team is entering the city of Miami having won seven of their last eight — the seven wins all again teams under .500 except for the Dallas Mavericks, who are proving to be less than their hot start to the season.

What we know about the Bucks is that they are at least beating the bad teams, and in doing so, the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Damian Lillard duo has gotten more much-needed reps. They're still a -0.14 net in 338 minutes together across 14 games, but Milwaukee has been tilting positively as of late.

The Bucks and Heat met on the third game of the season. Milwaukee won 122-114 at home, colored by a fake fourth-quarter comeback by the Heat, spearheaded by the bench along with then-active Tyler Herro, who had 35 points. The Bucks led the Heat 97-73 after three quarters. Bam Adebayo also sat that game.

Notable rankings: 

  • Two-point percentage: 2nd (.576)
  • True shooting percentage: 3rd (.604)
  • Effective field goal percentage: 3rd (.569)
  • Free throw attempts per 100 possessions: 4th (26.1)
  • Pace: 5th (101.5)
  • Free throw percentage: T-21st (76.4 percent)
  • Offensive rebounds per 100 possessions: 27th (9.2)
  • Assists per 100 possessions: 27th (24.0)

Notable injuries:

Khris Middleton (left Achilles tendonitis) is listed as questionable for today and did not play on Sunday against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Jae Crowder (abdominal tear) is expected to miss several weeks.

Miami Heat

Outlook on the Heat 

We don't know who is showing up for the Heat on a night-to-night basis, but the Heat have been off to a good start regarding wins and losses. However, when peeling back the layers on who they've actually beaten, it looks generally underwhelming.

Again, you beat who is on your schedule, and even last year's Heat team would have trouble against the current Charlotte Hornets or Washington Wizards regularly, so this is slightly different … slightly.

Speaking of slightly, the Bucks +2.3 net is hardly better than the Heat's +2.0, who are 14th in the NBA — two spots behind.

The Heat are 10-7 and lost two straight in their New York City back-to-back, including the aforementioned loss of the season to the Knicks, and the 112-97 short-handed loss to the Nets about 24 hours later.

In Miami's defense, they've only played five of their first 17 games at home, and are 4-1 in Miami.

The Heat beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they didn't have Donovan Mitchell, among others. They beat the Nets without Cam Thomas or Ben Simmons. They beat the Memphis Grizzlies without Ja Morant, but to be fair, who hasn't?

Their best two wins? In Atlanta against the Hawks and at home against the Los Angeles Lakers — both well over two weeks ago. Jimmy Butler and Adebayo have been great, Jaime Jaquez Jr. looks All-Rookie Team bound, and Duncan Robinson looks like his best self yet.,but otherwise, you're opening a mystery box every night with these culture-carrying masochists.

Notable rankings: 

  • Opponent turnover percentage: 2nd (15.0)
  • Steals per 100 possessions: 3rd (9.2)
  • Free throw percentage: 3rd (85.3)
  • Three-point percentage: 5th (.378)
  • Two-point percentage: 26th (.515)
  • Blocks per 100 possessions: T-28th (3.4)

Notable injuries:

Bam Adebayo (hip) is probable play through a hip ailment that's had him on the injury report in recent games. He has missed two of three for the Heat, including the loss to Brooklyn.

Jimmy Butler (ankle) is questionable to play, but he always is this early in the season. He sat against the Nets.

Duncan Robinson (thumb) is probable to return after missing two straight games.

Haywood Highsmith (back) is questionable to play after leaving the game against the Nets prematurely. He's started the last 12 games at power forward.

Tyler Herro (ankle) is still out.

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Heat vs Bucks Picks, Odds

Tuesday, Nov 28
7:30pm ET
Bucks Odds
-110 / -110
Heat Odds
-110 / -110
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

I like a prop, and I have a lean on the game that I may bet closer to tip-off, depending on availability.

Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo under 30.5 points (-110 on DraftKings)

If Adebayo plays, I'm on this prop. Antetokounmpo has gotten this over just five times in 28 games against the Heat since Adebayo entered the league. He's had some success against this team but doesn't often go off for 30 or more points against the Adebayo & Erik Spoelstra tandem.

Adebayo isn't the Antetokounmpo stopper — no one is — but he definitely disturbs him. We have too many of examples of Antetokounmpo shooting inefficiently when guarded by Adebayo over the last few years to count, so I'm rolling with Antetokounmpo going under, especially if Haywood Highsmith plays, because then Adebayo doesn't have to overcompensate with switching onto the perimeter, which he's done less of this year compared to recent seasons.

Side: Heat + 3

This feels like a game the Heat could win with the assumption that Butler and Adebayo play — Robinson and Highsmith as well.

The current line does seem to factor in at least Butler and Adebayo. The Heat are 6-0 when scoring at least 115 points and they're 4-1 at home. Milwaukee is 4-4 on the road with losses to the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic — the latter two of them blowouts.

I think the Heat could win this, but their fourth-quarter woes give me trepidation on betting it outright, though they've won six straight against the Bucks at home, including playoffs, going back to the 2021 postseason.

Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 30.5 Points (-110) | Heat +3 (-112)

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Nick Sterling
Feb 23, 2024 UTC