The Dallas Mavericks (6-15) and Denver Nuggets (14-5) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. EST from Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will broadcast live on KFAA.
The Nuggets are 11.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Nuggets -11.5), with the over/under set at 235.5 total points. Denver is a -550 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +400 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Monday, December 1.
My Mavericks vs Nuggets Prediction
- Mavericks vs Nuggets pick: Max Christie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers (-190) / Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (+142)
My Mavericks vs Nuggets best bet is split between Max Christie over 1.5 and over 2.5 three-pointers made, with the best price tags currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Mavericks vs Nuggets Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 235.5 -110 / -110 | +400 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 235.5 -110 / -110 | -550 |
Mavericks vs Nuggets NBA Preview
I went round-and-round on this one.
The Nuggets’ defense ranks dead last since Aaron Gordon went down with injury, and the over is 6-3 in their home games.
The Mavericks, on the other hand, rank 2nd in under-rate this season, and are dead last when it comes to halfcourt offense.
It’s the very stoppable force against the completely movable object.
With priors, I lean Mavericks in this spot. On in-season data, I lean Nuggets.
So instead, I’ll go with a prop.
Mavericks vs Nuggets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Max Christie leads the Mavericks with 2.7 corner three-point attempts per game, making 57% of them so far this season.
The Nuggets rank dead last in opponent corner three-point rate, a consequence of their two primary coverages: at-level screen defense by the big and zone.
Quite simply, if you leverage Denver's poor perimeter defense at all, and pass with any decency, you’ll create corner threes.
Christie has gone over this alternate line of over 2.5 in 67% of games this season, and over the 1.5 line in 76% of games.
Mavericks vs Nuggets Best Bets
- Max Christie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers (-190)
- Max Christie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (+142)
Spread
I'm staying away from the spread in this matchup.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline as well.
Over/Under
My Nuggets vs Mavericks betting prediction is on Max Christie over 1.5 three-pointers made.
