The Dallas Mavericks (8-15) and Oklahoma City Thunder (21-1) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. EST from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Thunder are 15-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Thunder -15), with the over/under set at 229.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -1100 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +700 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Friday, December 5.
My Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction
- Mavericks vs Thunder picks: Mavericks Moneyline (+700), Under 229.5 (-110)
My Mavericks vs Thunder best bets are on Dallas moneyline and the under, with the best price tags currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Mavericks vs Thunder Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15 -110 | 229.5 -110 / -110 | +700 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15 -110 | 229.5 -110 / -110 | -1100 |
Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Preview
We usually say, “I’m going to sprinkle on the moneyline.”
This is more like a pinch. Like in a baking recipe, where you don’t want to use too much of the spice, or it becomes inedible.
You gotta go light here. But the spot is excellent.
The Mavericks have put together three wins.
Yes, one was against the woeful Clippers, another against the Nuggets without their two best defensive starters, and the third in a game where the Heat missed 26 three-pointers.
However, you can’t nitpick when a team like this gets on a roll; it’s only going to happen so many times and only under these conditions.
Jason Kidd is 8-5 ATS against Mark Daigneault in his career — 6-4 in the regular season, and 4-6 straight up.
Despite the gap between these teams, Kidd has managed to keep it close.
Yes, much of that was having Luka Doncic, who you will note is no longer on the Mavericks for some strange reason I can’t remember.
When Anthony Davis plays, his teams are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS against the Thunder since 2023-24, when OKC first emerged as a great team. They struggle with his size and skill combination.
The Mavericks have turnover issues, which is not what you want against Oklahoma City.
I can’t sit here and identify a lot of team stats where Dallas has a surprising edge. They stink, at least so far this year.
However, this is the premium spot for the Mavericks, and the Thunder seem to to be at near-peak value.
I’m not going to sit here and say “OKC has to lose sometime” because, well, no, they don’t.
Nonetheless, Dallas moneyline is an intriguing option in tonight's game.
Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction, Betting Analysis
Looking for a reason to skip the Mavericks moneyline?
The Thunder are an absolutely guano 44-2 SU against teams under .500 since the start of last season.
However, the +700 value is enough to make me want to bet it anyway.
I also like the under as a more substantial play, because it’s a lot safer.
Even in this three-game winning streak, the Mavericks still only went over their team total in two of the three games by a combined seven points in suspect situations (against Clippers’ bad defense, and Miami's fast pace).
The under hits at the second-best rate, league-wide, in Mavericks road games among all teams.
This is two elite half-court defenses, and while the Thunder are likely to generate fast-breaks off Dallas’ third-highest offensive turnover rate, the Mavericks have the third-best transition defense in the league.
This should be a slow, grind-it-out slog.
If Dallas pulls off our upset, it’s because the Mavs mucked up the game and got enough offense to slip past.
If OKC stomps them, it’s likely because Dallas goes back to being completely inept on offense. And if OKC wins but doesn’t cover, we'll likely see a lower-possession battle that stays close.
I project this all the way down at 217, with Dallas projected under 105 points on season-long numbers. I’ll take the under.
Mavericks vs Thunder Best Bets
- Mavericks Moneyline (+700)
- Under 229.5 (-110)
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in this game.
Moneyline
My Thunder vs Mavericks betting prediction is on Dallas moneyline at +700.
Over/Under
I will also be taking the under at 229.5 total points.
Thunder vs Mavericks Betting Trends
