The Golden State Warriors (25-21) and Minnesota Timberwolves (27-18) will face off in the NBA on Saturday evening. Tipoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Timberwolves are 6-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Timberwolves -6), with the over/under set at 234.5 total points. Minnesota -240 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Golden State is +195 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, January 24.
Warriors vs Timberwolves Prediction, Picks
- Warriors vs Timberwolves picks: Warriors +6 (-110), Under 234.5 (-110)
My Warriors vs Timberwolves best bets are on Golden State +6 and Under 234.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Warriors vs Timberwolves Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
Warriors vs Timberwolves NBA Preview
The Warriors look dead in the water. They weren’t a great team to start with, before the Jimmy Butler season effectively ended their season. They played with very little heart and very little fire vs. the Raptors and Mavericks.
This is the spot to catch them.
The Raptors game was in the aftershock of Butler’s injury; they were never going to get up for that game, it was too soon. They were on a back-to-back. It makes sense they got drilled.
Then, the Warriors went to Dallas for the emotional game of playing Klay Thompson. I gave out Mavericks in that game, specifically because Dallas plays really well against playoff-level teams and struggles against everyone else.
Now, we have the Timberwolves.
Minnesota is 8-11 ATS as a home favorite this season.
The Wolves' problem is they have a nasty habit of getting caught by teams in bad spots. They have quality wins against good teams at home like the Spurs, Cavaliers, Celtics, and Knicks.
If the Warriors were better, I’d feel better about the spot for Minnesota, and the line would be lower.
Minnesota is 8-11 ATS against teams under.500 ATS this season. Basically, the Wolves underperform vs. market underperformers. That’s their win profile.
Here’s the real stunner, though: Minnesota is 9-17 ATS when favored by more than 4.5 points.
Basically, the Wolves are good under a possession, and good to that hook based on the expectation of them winning by slightly more than a possession — but after that, it goes downhill.
Then, there’s the basketball side.
The Warriors bomb from 3-point range; they average the highest percentage of shots from deep.
The Wolves are 9-13 ATS against those teams this season and 5-11 as a favorite.
The problem? Minnesota is 4th in opponent three-point rate. That’s their strength, so the best teams at it give them problems.
Warriors vs Timberwolves Predictions, Betting Analysis
Warriors +6
The Timberwolves will miss Nickeil Alexander-Walker to chase Steph Curry around, and will likely find themselves in a surprising fight with Golden State.
Yes, Jimmy Butler’s gone for the season. Yes, their season is probably over. But there are still games to play.
It’s time to dust themselves off and get back to work, and I think this is the game where they do so.
I make this spread Wolves -3.5, and would play it to Warriors +4.
Under 234.5
Butler’s impact was bigger on the Warriors’ offense (3.9 points in non-garbage time per 100 possessions) than defense (0.9).
In those games against above-average three-point teams, the Under in Wolves games is 10-6.
Overall, the Under is 13-6 in Wolves games when they are favored — and given that I think the Warriors cover, in games where Minnesota is favored but doesn’t cover, the Under is 8-3 this season.
Golden State’s switching defense will muck up the actions for Anthony Edwards. The Warriors are good at taking away threes and rim shots and forcing mid-range shots, which the Wolves are not built to take and make outside of Edwards.
The Warriors’ offense has been a problem all season and will struggle more without Butler.
Minnesota should control the glass to extend time of possession, and the Warriors will walk their offense up.
Warriors vs Timberwolves Best Bets
- Warriors +6 (-110)
- Under 234.5 (-110)
Spread
My first Timberwolves vs Warriors betting prediction is on Golden State to cover the spread at +6.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
My second betting prediction for today's matchup is on the Under at 234.5 total points.
Timberwolves vs Warriors Betting Trends
