Kings vs. Jazz Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction: A Player Prop and Spread Bet for Tuesday (January 3)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Domantas Sabonis #10 and De’Aaron Fox # 5 of the Sacramento Kings.
- The Sacramento Kings face the Utah Jazz (-3) on the road Tuesday.
- The Jazz have dropped four straight with one of those games coming to the Kings on Friday night.
- Joe Dellera breaks down the Kings vs. Jazz odds and gives his pick and prediction in the matchup.
Kings vs. Jazz Odds
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Sacramento Kings head to Utah to take on the Jazz Tuesday. Both teams are looking for their first win of the New Year with this being the Jazz’s first opportunity and the Kings’ second after falling to the Memphis Grizzlies on New Year’s Day.
Both teams have been rocky in their past 10 after they each opened the season on fire. So where can we find value in the Kings vs. Jazz odds? Let’s break it down.
The Kings sit in sixth place in the Western Conference with the 13th-best Adjusted Net Rating (+1.0). The team is interesting because they are miserable defensively but the offense is one of the league’s best with Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox at the helm. Two of their ancillary offensive weapons in Malik Monk (shoulder) and Kevin Huerter (back) are each listed as Questionable for this game.
Back to Fox and Sabonis, they have two of the three highest Point Differential on the team, and when they share the floor, the Kings are +8.5 points per 100 possessions and they score an absurd 122.1 points per 100, per Cleaning the Glass. This is an elite offensive attack with Fox’s ability to get downhill and attack the basket and Sabonis who is an incredible triple thread as a scorer, rebounder, and passer.
Sabonis has not let his thumb injury affect his performance either and he has picked up right where he left off performance-wise. This is an excellent matchup for him too. In his Dec. 30 matchup against Utah, he logged 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists and blew past his PRA line.
I just took Sabonis’ PRA under in the last game, but that was against a Memphis Grizzlies defense that is top of the league. Here, he has a matchup against the fourth-worst Adjusted Defense in the league that relies on Kelly Olynyk and Jarred Vanderbilt on the interior. I will actively look to take his PRA over and would take any number up to 41.5.
The Jazz are similar to the Kings in that they have the 14th-best Adjusted Net Rating (+0.9) and they are powered by a high-powered offense and a bottom ranked defense. While they will continue to be without Collin Sexton (hamstring), this team has plenty of offensive firepower to make up for that.
The Jazz rely on a barrage of three point shooting for their offensive success. They take threes at the fourth-highest frequency and have the 11th-best 3-point shooting percentage as a team (37.4%). The one good thing the Kings do defensively is they limit perimeter opportunities, so even though their opponents shoot slightly better than league average from beyond the arc, their opportunities are generally limited.
When they teams played a few days ago, the Jazz shot just 25% from 3-point range and were 8-for-32 from long range. This was eight fewer attempts than their season average of 39.8 attempts per game and six fewer makes than their season average of 14.6, per TeamRankings. While some may assume regression towards their season average marks, we cannot do that because of the Kings’ specific defensive scheme to limit three point opportunities.
Additionally, the Jazz attempted more free throws than they typically do while the Kings took fewer. We cannot look at the three point variance in a vacuum and assume regression.
When these teams played just a few days ago the Kings closed as -3.5 home favorites in what was ultimately a one-point Kings’ victory. Now, the venue has changed to Utah and the spread has flipped to make the Jazz -3 home favorites at the open. That line was immediately moved down to 2.5.
The Jazz have been miserable as a favorite this season, with a 5-11 ATS record and 7-9 straight up mark. On the flip side, the Kings are 10-9 ATS as a dog but just 6-13 straight up in this situation. While none of these marks are particularly compelling, the Kings are the better ATS in this spot.
This should be an exciting and closely contest game between two high-powered offenses. Here, I am taking the Kings to cover as a road underdog. They have the best player on the floor in Domantas Sabonis and even though their defense is not particular good, they have been effective on the season at limiting 3-point opportunities, which would be critical to keep the Jazz out of rhythm.
Pick: Kings +2.5 | Domantas Sabonis Over 41.5 PRA