The New York Knicks (16-7) and Toronto Raptors (15-10) will meet in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals on Tuesday night. Tipoff from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
The Knicks are 4.5-point favorites over the Raptors in tonight's contest, with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. New York is a -200 favorite to win outright, while Toronto is +165 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Knicks vs Raptors picks and NBA predictions for Tuesday, December 9.
Knicks vs Raptors Picks, Props, Predictions for NBA Cup Quarterfinals
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs Raptors Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Raptors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
Knicks vs. Raptors Spread Prediction
Bryan Fonseca brought up the issue of how the Raptors have played without RJ Barrett on the Buckets podcast last night, and the difference is stark.
With Barrett, the Raptors are 12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS. Without him, they are 3-5 SU and a stunning 1-7 ATS.
Now, the biggest problem has been that JaKobe Walter replaced Barrett, and his impact numbers have been horrendous, but the Raptors went to AJ Lawson in their game against the Celtics, and it was better — although Toronto still lost.
I have Barrett worth a full three points to the spread, and the market is never going to respect players of his caliber like that.
This also provides an opportunity to buy back in on Toronto when he returns, but I digress.
The Knicks have been bad on the road (2-7 ATS), but Toronto is 4-9 ATS at home this season.
Toronto gives up the 11th-most shots at the rim and the 6th-highest field goal percentage there this season.
The Raptors have done a good job limiting three-point percentage this season, but that’s usually considered more luck-influenced than other metrics by the analytics wonks, and they give up the sixth-most three-point attempts by percentage of possessions.
Meanwhile, the Knicks are dynamite from three-point range in both volume and efficiency.
This is actually not a Jalen Brunson game; the Raptors are in the upper-third of the league in defending pick-and-roll.
However, they do give up lobs in the pick-and-roll and can get hurt by pick-and-pop actions, especially with Jakob Poeltl on the floor, who plays in a deep drop. That opens things for a monster Karl-Anthony Towns game.
The Raptors have been a surprise this season, but they are headed into the tournament at the wrong time, and the Knicks have been resoundingly better.
I make this the spread for this game Knicks -8.25.
Pick: Knicks -4.5
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Karl-Anthony Towns Points Prop
The Raptors struggle at the rim, where Towns leads the Knicks in scoring and attempts — and from the perimeter, where Towns is a real threat in pick-and-pop actions.
I’ll play some escalators to 30+ points with Towns as well.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 Points
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Jalen Brunson Assists Prop
Brunson has gone over this in eight of the last nine matchups against the Raptors.
With how the Raptors defend pick-and-roll, there will be more assist chances for him than scoring, relative to his averages.
Brunson can drop 40 points anyway via floaters and free throws, but with where the Raptors' defense has been, it’s likely he finds opportunities, not only for Towns, but for Mikal Bridges as well.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists
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