Clippers-Warriors Game 1 Betting Preview: Will Golden State Cover the Big Number?
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Klay Thompson
Game 1 Betting Odds: Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
- Spread: Warriors -12.5
- Over/Under: 232
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ABC
>> All odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
The Warriors will begin their quest to join a short list of dynasties to win three titles in a row. Their first opponent is the Los Angeles Clippers, who are big dogs on the road in Game 1.
Is there any value in today’s line? Our analysts dive in.
Betting Trends to Know
Since 2005, teams favored by 10 or more points in the playoffs have gone 101-8 straight-up and 58-48-3 (55%) against the spread. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 20-1 SU but 8-13 ATS as double-digit favorites in the postseason. — John Ewing
The Warriors (57-25) are home favorites against the Clippers (48-34). Since 2005, favorites with a better record than their opponent in the playoffs have gone 430-374-14 (54%) ATS. If the team is a sizable favorite of six or more points, they have gone 240-189-9 (56%) ATS. — Ewing
Mears: How I’m Handicapping This Game
There are a bunch of conflicting trends in this one.
First, I wrote a couple days ago about how the Warriors have been terrible regular-season bets but awesome playoff bets during the Kevin Durant era.
It definitely seems like the “flip the switch” narrative is real in the playoffs. That said, most of that ATS value has come on the road, where the KD Dubs are 13-5. At home, they’re just an average 10-10 ATS.
Further, as John mentioned above, the Warriors have struggled to cover double-digit spreads, going just 8-13 in those games.
John also wrote a great piece the other day about teams with postseason experience vs. teams without it. Those teams have really over-performed ATS on the road:
Given all of that data, this game is probably a stay-away. But if you’re really itching to get a bet down, I’d slightly lean toward the Clippers covering the big spread given John’s double-digit trend.
I think the best value in this series is going to be getting the Warriors at single digits in Los Angeles. — Bryan Mears
Moore: Stay Away!
I got nothing for you here.
The Warriors should crush, but I don’t want to lay that much against a tough Clippers team. A little lower and I’d be all over it, but John’s note on Golden State vs. double-digit spreads freezes me a bit.
This line sucks. — Matt Moore
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.