Grizzlies-Warriors Betting Guide: Fade the Public Warriors?

Betting odds: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

• Spread: Warriors -11
• Over/Under: 210.5
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: NBA TV

The 16-13 Memphis Grizzlies visit the 20-10 Golden State Warriors tonight. The Dubs are currently double-digit favorites and, as usual, getting a majority of the support today. Is there value in fading the public?

Betting Trend to Know

The Grizzlies enter this road game at Oracle Arena to face the Warriors as the slowest-paced team in the NBA, averaging 96.0 possessions per 48 minutes this season.

Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 98-77-2 ATS (56%) at home, profiting bettors 15.9 units, when facing a team averaging fewer than 100 possessions per 48 minutes.

Since Kerr became the Warriors coach in 2014, no coach is more profitable at home in this spot than Kerr at Oracle Arena. This is the third time the Warriors face a team at home in this spot in 2018; they are 2-0 SU and ATS, winning by 18 PPG. — Evan Abrams

Mears: The Warriors Are the NBA's Most Public Team

I could write about how the Warriors are now healthy again and what Stephen Curry means to this team. The Dubs have been a ridiculous 12.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor vs. off, and that number is split pretty evenly on both offense and defense.

But honestly, I'm not sure that matters a whole lot for the betting market.

So far today, the Warriors have received 57% of the bets and 60% of the money. In their 112 regular season games since the start of last year, they've received 50% or more of the spread bets in 100 of those games — 89.3%. Think about that: In almost 90% of games, the majority of bettors are on the Warriors.

They are clearly an incredibly public team, and oddsmakers have cleaned up as a result. Over the last two seasons, the Dubs are 47-65 against-the-spread, good for an -18.2% return on investment and $2,038 lost, assuming $100 bets. If you've done nothing but blindly fade the Warriors since the beginning of last year, you're buying some nice Christmas presents this year.

Just this season, the Warriors are 13-17 ATS, good for a -15.2% ROI. In their 30 games, they've received the majority of spread bets in every single one. They've received the majority of spread dollars in 25 of those.

This is all to say: When you're betting the Warriors, keep in mind that the line is inflated toward them given their massive public betting support. They could of course go off in any given game and smash the spread, but if you have consistently faded the public, you've done well — and likely will continue to do well.

On the whole, since the beginning of last season, teams getting less than 50% of spread bets have gone 840-761-28 (52.5%), good for an ROI of 2.5%. Teams receiving less than 40% of bets have an ROI of 4.0%. Teams receiving less than 30% of bets have an ROI of 5.8%.

You get the picture: Fade the public. And that usually means fading the Warriors. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.