Should You Fade NBA Teams with a Day off Before Weekend Games in Miami?
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: American Airlines Arena in Miami
- NBA teams playing against the Heat on Saturdays and Sundays with at least one night off in Miami produces a positive win percentage and return on investment.
- The Heat are 62-27 straight-up in this spot since 2005, supporting Vik Chokshi's "Miami Club Theory." He breaks it down below.
When the Portland Trail Blazers played the Miami Heat on Sunday, Oct. 28 after a Saturday night off in Miami, my eyes lit up like a jack-o’lantern.
It was a chance to finally test whether my “Miami Club Theory” is real or simply a gambler’s fallacy.
Like all gamblers, I have many theories and systems. Some have been highly profitable while others have busted my ego (and wallet). Nonetheless, like we learned from the movie “Mississippi Grind,” a true gambler never stops!
The “Miami Club Theory” is simple: If road teams are in Miami for the weekend and have a day off before their game, players are going to go out and enjoy the lush nightlife.
I call it the “Club” theory because I envision NBA players popping bottles at LIV (or any other nightclub in South Beach), but it could be any form of entertainment. No matter the plans, NBA players are just like everyone else: They work extremely hard and they want to enjoy their time off.
OK, back to that Blazers-Heat game. I’ve been gambling for many years, but finally decided to place an actual wager on this theory by taking the Heat.
The Blazers were coming off a nice road win against the Magic on that previous Thursday, had the night off on Friday and were playing the Heat on that Saturday. The Heat came into the game as 1.5-point favorites, though. With the public all over the Blazers, I knew it was time to ride with the Heat and put my theory to the test.
The result: Miami won 120-111, and I cashed my ticket!
My dreams were shattered 10 minutes later (thanks Google) once I discovered the premise is nothing new when it comes to betting. Matt Moore, a colleague of mine at The Action Network, did a similar post in regards to Los Angeles nightlife.
While a little deflated, I was still hyped I had won my bet. Then it happened. Right at that moment, Drake’s “Do Not Disturb” came on my Spotify and heard the line: “Went from Club Palazzo in the ‘Bridge to Club LIV.”
Club LIV. Miami. There had to be something with Miami!
One of the benefits of working at The Action Network is having access to our amazing Bet Labs database. With the help of stat whiz John Ewing, I took a look at results dating back to 2005, focusing on Saturday and Sunday games featuring opponents with at least one night off in Miami.
Once we ran the numbers, boom: A positive win percentage and return on investment appeared.
Taking a deeper dive into the results, you’ll see there’s not much there against the spread.
But if you took the Heat on the moneyline in all of those games, that’s where it gets juicy. Look at the moneyline record and ROI in Heat games on Saturdays and Sundays against teams with at least one day off since 2005.
The Heat have had some talented teams since 2005, from Dwyane Wade and Shaq to the Big 3. So the low ROI compared to the high win percentage makes sense, as the Heat were probably favored in a lot of those games, especially when LeBron James was there.
But the record speaks for itself, even post-LBJ: The Heat are 62-27 straight-up in this spot since 2005. Take that for data!
So there you have it folks. Who knows whether it’s the travel, sleeping on different beds, going out or being hungover? Either way, the proof is in the pudding. And while oddsmakers probably don’t factor in the club theory when making these lines, you should when betting them.
The next game that fits this theory is Sunday when the Utah Jazz visit the Heat. If you do end up wagering on this theory this weekend and it hits, do me a favor and tweet me @docksquad33 with the following: “Club Theory FOO!”