The NBA Playoffs officially begin with a full slate of Game 1s today — Saturday, April 18. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified best bets for all four of today's matchups, including picks for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, Rockets vs. Lakers, and more.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Saturday's playoff games.
NBA Best Bets for Saturday, April 18
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Raptors vs. Cavaliers Total Prediction
I’m taking the Under 219.5 in Game 1, and honestly, this entire series has "under" written all over it. My primary concern is that I’m not sure the Raptors can score consistently in a postseason setting.
You have to remember: this is an inexperienced Toronto group. That lack of playoff reps usually leads to a difficult adjustment period when the style of play slows down, and the Raptors aren't great in half-court offense to begin with.
The Raptors rely almost exclusively on turnovers and fast-break points to create an avalanche of momentum. The problem? James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are as composed a backcourt duo as you’ll find. They aren't going to hand over the easy transition buckets that Toronto needs to survive.
If the Raptors are forced to execute in the half-court, they are likely drawing dead.
While Toronto has shot the ball well lately—ranking 3rd in 3-point percentage over their last 15 games—they are dead last in three-point attempts. They simply do not take enough shots from deep to tilt the scoreboard.
On the other side, I expect the Raptors' length and speed to disrupt Cleveland's rhythm and push their EFG% below season averages.
Finally, the historical trends are screaming under. In the last six playoff seasons (excluding the bubble), Game 1s are 33-15 to the under. That is a 69% win rate.
I don't trust either of these teams to score consistently, so I’m riding the under until proven otherwise.
Pick: Under 219.5 (-110)
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Over/Under Pick
My model originally pinned this number at 234.5, and even when you apply a standard playoff adjustment of 4 to 4.5 points to account for the typical postseason grind, we are still seeing massive value here.
The line has moved consistently up with one-way action — and with sharp books already starting to show 232, there is clearly zero resistance to the over.
The familiarity between these two teams is a major factor. They have played numerous series against one another in recent years, which means the typical Game 1 "nerves" or "feeling-out process" that slows down pace just won't be there.
Stylistically, the matchup has shifted toward more scoring. Minnesota’s defense takes a hit with the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but the addition of Bones Hyland and Ayo Dosunmu has transformed their approach. They want to attack Denver in transition, push the pace, and get straight into their sets.
On the other side, the Nuggets’ offense is currently a "ho-hum" machine—they are simply unavoidable. They finished the season with the No. 1 offensive efficiency in the NBA and are finally fully healthy.
With Tim Hardaway Jr. back from his late-season injury, Cam Johnson finding his rhythm, and Bruce Brown knocking down corner threes, Denver has elite spacing.
When you factor in that Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray will likely see their minutes scale up for the playoffs, and Anthony Edwards has a clear matchup advantage against Christian Braun, this game has all the ingredients for a shootout.
Pick: Over 231.5 (-110)
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Hawks vs. Knicks Prop Bet
I’m locking in Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds for Game 1, and I’m also eyeing him as the series rebounding leader.
KAT should dominate the glass consistently in this matchup because the Hawks simply don't have an ideal defensive option for him. Onyeka Okongwu isn’t big enough, and neither is Jalen Johnson. Jock Landale likely won't see much time, and honestly, even if he did, he isn't locking up Towns.
While everyone in our Instagram comments is busy fighting over our film breakdown of Jalen Brunson’s defense, they’re missing the real story: the massive size mismatch.
Brunson is going to have to work for every point against defenders like Dyson Daniels and Jonathan Kuminga, but that perimeter pressure creates lanes for KAT to own the boards.
The only real threat to this over is the classic "KAT experience"—early foul trouble. But as long as he stays on the floor, Towns should have multiple 14- or 15-rebound games this series.
Between KAT and Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks are going to bully Atlanta on the glass. I’m expecting games where New York out-rebounds them by double digits.
For this series to go the way most people think, Towns needs to be a force in the paint. I’m betting he starts that tonight.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-118)
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Rockets vs. Lakers Player Prop Pick
I’m targeting Amen Thompson Over 25.5 Points and Rebounds (PR) because I expect a massive statistical edge for the Rockets in what I call "bludgeon ball."
The Houston Rockets are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA, and their strategy effectively boils down to missing a bunch of shots but simply outworking the opponent to create second and third chances.
While Alperen Şengün is the name most people look at, his rebounding numbers have dipped slightly, while Amen’s have stayed consistently high.
In the three matchups between these teams this season, the Rockets hauled in 44 offensive rebounds. They were rebounding over 40% of their own misses in those games, and Thompson was the primary engine behind that dominance.
Amen averaged 10 total rebounds per game against Los Angeles this season, including four offensive boards per contest. When you look at his PR totals in the season series, the numbers aren't even close to this 25.5 line: he put up 33, 31, and 37 PR.
This line is fundamentally too low for a player who has proven he can physically overwhelm the Lakers' frontcourt.
Pick: Amen Thompson Over 25.5 Points & Rebounds (-125)
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