The NBA playoffs resume with a trio of Game 6s today, Friday, May 1 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in picks for all three of today's matchups: Pistons vs. Magic, Cavaliers vs. Raptors, and Lakers vs. Rockets.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, over/under picks, and player props for tonight's playoff games.
NBA Best Bets, Spread Picks, Player Props: Friday, May 1
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Pistons vs. Magic Over/Under Pick, Prop Bet
Under 211.5
This is only a one-star play for me since I don’t live in the totals market, but the value here is screaming.
The scoring average so far in this series is sitting at just 203.8. While we’ve actually seen the "over" hit in three of the five games, I’m calling that a product of wild, outlier shot-making.
I don’t see Desmond Bane continuing this heater, and Cade Cunningham and Paolo Banchero aren’t going to combine for massive numbers every night.
J.B. Bickerstaff and Jamahl Mosley are historically "under" coaches in the playoffs, combining for a 35-20 record (64%) to the low side.
Then, you have the situational Game 6 trends: when the home team isn’t a favorite of 3 or more, the under is 57-30 (66%). In a 1-vs-8 matchup like this, the under hits at a 68% clip.
We’ve already seen how ugly this can get with totals of 181 and 182 in this series.
Everyone knows about the "Game 7 under," but Game 6 is the new Game 7 under—the market just hasn't fully priced that edge in yet.
I’m heading into the mineshaft: Under 200.5 (+255) and a nibble on Under 185.5 (+1100). Let’s get ugly.
Ausar Thompson Over 6.5 Rebounds
I have just loved watching the Thompson twins this round—the IQ plays, the effort, and the fact that they never seem to tire out.
While everyone else is slowing down as the series drags on, Ausar Thompson is actually ramping up.
Thompson has gone from 27 minutes a game early on to 35 minutes over the last three—a 32% increase—and his rebounding chances have climbed right along with it to nearly 16 per game.
He was a flat-out monster in Game 5, grabbing 15 boards on 19 chances. The floor here feels safe; he has cleared 6.5 in all five games this series and has grabbed 8+ in four straight.
A huge part of his value is on the offensive glass. He has 18 offensive rebounds in the series, with at least three in every single game.
I’m already sitting on some massive series-long tickets at +1500 and +5000, as he is currently leading the series in boards, but for tonight, the 6.5 is a gift.
I’ll also play the escalator: 8+ Rebounds is +122 at FanDuel, and I’m nibbling on 10+ at +325 at BetMGM, which is exactly where I project him. He is simply outworking everyone on the floor.
Picks: Under 210.5, Ausar Thompson Over 6.5 Rebounds
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Cavaliers vs. Raptors Prop Bets
Jarrett Allen Under 8.5 Rebounds
This line is too high. Jarrett Allen can barely stay on the court right now. He’s essentially down to 25 minutes a game, and it’s clear Kenny Atkinson has stopped believing in the Mobley-Allen twin towers pairing. They start together to satisfy egos, but that’s about as far as it goes.
The irony is that the Raptors don’t even have a real center, and Allen is still failing to find his footing.
Outside of a monster outlier in Game 4—where he had 15 boards on 29 chances—he has been a non-factor.
In the other three games surrounding that outlier, he’s put up rebound totals of 3, 4, and 3 on a measly 9.3 chances per game. He has stayed under 8.5 in four of the five games this series.
If we’re wrong, we’re probably "super wrong" like in Game 4, but if we’re right, we’re going to be "super right."
I’m heading into the mineshaft for the alt unders: Under 5.5 is +312 and Under 4.5 is +587 at FanDuel. He’s recorded four or fewer rebounds in three of his last four; the floor is falling out.
James Harden Under 20.5 Points
I am fading late-series James Harden. This is officially a three-star play, but in my head, it’s a 10-star because there is nothing I love more than betting against Harden when a series gets deep.
The Harden reputation—the idea that he shrinks when the lights get brightest—isn’t just a narrative; the numbers back it up. Since leaving Houston, Harden is a miserable 2-7 straight up in Game 6s and 7s.
In those nine games, his scoring falls off a cliff. He averages just 16 points on 38% shooting, compared to the 21 points he averages in Games 1 through 5. His points drop by 23% while his assists jump by 25%. He becomes afraid to shoot and starts passing the buck to anyone else on the floor.
Just look at his point totals in those nine high-leverage games: 16, 16, 13, 11, 9, and 7. He has scored 22 or more exactly once.
Because his late-series average is only 16, we are taking the "super mineshaft" here. I love Under 16.5 (+286), which has hit in six of those nine games. If you want to get aggressive, Under 13.5 is +597—a line he’s stayed under in over 50% of these spots.
Since he’s passing more, I’m also looking at a SGP: Under 13.5 points and 7+ assists at +1210. He has hit at least seven assists in all nine of those games. If he’s just going to go out there and pass a bunch, we’re going to profit.
Picks: Jarrett Allen Under 8.5 Rebounds, James Harden Under 20.5 Points
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Lakers vs. Rockets Player Props
Alperen Sengun Under 21.5 Points
While Alperen Sengun had a massive Game 3 on the glass, he’s playing much more within himself lately, and that’s a polite way of saying his scoring volume has fallen off a cliff.
In Game 5, he was just 5-of-9 from the field. In Game 4, he was 6-of-12. Compare that to the first three games of this series where he was averaging 10-of-22 from the field and 24 points per game, and his shots have essentially been cut in half.
The reason is tactical: Houston’s screen rate is way down. We discussed this earlier on our Buckets Podcast—the Rockets are leaning into isolation more because the Lakers are blitzing their ball screens. Less pick-and-roll means fewer touches for Sengun and far fewer shots.
Houston’s offense actually looks better now because they’ve cut out those inefficient Sengun looks.
He has scored under 21.5 points in four of the five games this series, including games where he was still chucking 20+ shots.
I’m also taking the alt-under 16.5 at +255—that’s what he’s averaged over the last two games, and even then, he needed a huge night at the free-throw line just to get close.
Luke Kennard Under 7.5 Points
With Austin Reaves back in the lineup for the Lakers and immediately retaking his role in the offense—dropping 22 points in his return—there is hardly any volume left for a guy like Luke Kennard.
The numbers from Game 5 are staggering in how little he did: he logged 31 minutes and finished with exactly one point. He went 0-for-4 from the field and has now combined for just five three-point attempts over the last two games, hitting none of them. The Rockets aren't even letting him get the shots off.
I love the 7.5 hook here because it gives us a massive cushion. Even if Kennard actually finds his stroke and goes 2-for-2 from deep, we’re still safe by a point. He’s gone under this number in two straight games, scoring just 7 and 1.
If you want to head into the mineshaft, Under 4.5 is sitting at +320 at bet365. He might not even score tonight.
Picks: Alperen Sengun Under 21.5 Points, Luke Kennard Under 7.5 Points
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