NBA Picks, Predictions, Odds: Expert Bets For Kings vs Suns, Warriors vs Clippers
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Franz Wagner #22 of the Orlando Magic.
- It's a busy Tuesday in the NBA and our analysts are all over it from a betting standpoint.
- We have bets on four different games, including late-night tilts like Kings-Suns and Warriors-Clippers.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of how we're betting tonight's NBA slate.
Tuesday night’s NBA schedule is short with just five games in total. The two games being featured on national TV — Celtics vs. Bucks (7:30 p.m. ET) and Warriors vs. Clippers (10 p.m. ET) — will be impacted by the injury report.
However, our analysts have best bets for four games, including those two matchups. Check out their expert picks and predictions below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
Malik Smith: The Orlando Magic have quietly been really good for a nice stretch. While other rebuilding teams are focusing on the future at this point in the season, the Magic are consistently catching teams off guard.
The Magic are 31-19-1 (62%) against the spread as underdogs, the third-most profitable team in that spot. They’ve been spectacular as underdogs on the road as well going 13-3 ATS since mid-December.
On the other side we have the Toronto Raptors who lost outright to the Utah Jazz at home Friday as 8.5-point favorites and won by a point against the Detroit Pistons on Sunday as 11.5-point favorites. They’ve been average at best as home favorites at just 13-11 ATS this season.
The Magic just played in Chicago (won outright), so this game comes on a back-to-back, but most of their roster is guys under 25 years old. I don’t think playing two games on the road on consecutive nights will have the same impact on them.
This line opened at Magic +6 and has moved as high as +7.5 at BetMGM. I think the Magic have the talent to cover and I would bet this down to +7.
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Joe Dellera: I wrote the full betting breakdown for this game (you can read that here), but I think the Bucks are the right side of the spread in this game.
This spread has ballooned from Bucks -4 to as high as Bucks -9.5 with Jayson Tatum popping on the injury report as doubtful. While I don’t agree that Tatum is worth 5.5 points to the spread (I have him closer to 3.5), with Boston’s other injuries — Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are out, Robert Williams and Grant Williams are questionable — the collective impact is greater than the sum of its parts.
Right now, Milwaukee is better than Boston, and the health certainly helps. I think it’s entirely possible that Boston lets its players rest as this is the first game of a back-to-back set as the team heads into the All-Star break.
It seems uncomfortable to lay this many points against the Celtics, but if Tatum is officially ruled out, this Celtics team is a shell of itself against the red-hot Bucks who look to stretch their win streak to 11 games. BetRivers has the best line on this at -8.5 but I’d go up to -9.5.
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
Jacob McKenna: Both Sacramento and Phoenix find themselves in playoff position, but the tightly contested Western Conference makes every matchup at this stage of the season a crucial one.
Kevin Durant will not be in the lineup for this matchup and while Devin Booker looks to be back at full strength, appear to be on a minutes restriction, averaging 25 minutes per game since his return. That complicates Phoenix’s offense even more as its best scorer is playing a very limited role, which is why the Suns’ Offensive Rating has only risen to 109.8 with Booker back in the lineup.
The Kings, meanwhile, own a 117.5 Offensive Rating this season, surpassing the Denver Nuggets as the No. 1 offense in the NBA after two solid performances against Dallas over the weekend.
That level of firepower has been on full display during Sacramento’s last four games, a span of time in which we have seen the Kings’ Offensive Rating rise to 127.3. The nearly 10 point increase is largely due to the fact that the Kings are shooting 53.3% from the floor in those four games, doing most of their damage on the interior, where they are averaging 62 points per game.
Without having Durant on the floor, the Suns are more limited in what they can accomplish on the offensive end. Phoenix was forced to send Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson to Brooklyn in the Durant trade, two guys who averaged double-digit points per game.
That scoring output will be replaced with Durant in the lineup, but until that happens and Booker gets his restrictions removed, the Suns will likely continue to see a lower offensive output.
Sacramento does not pose much of a threat on the defensive end, but its scoring talent is up there with the best of the NBA and I believe that will allow the Kings to at the very least keep this game close. I like the spread down to +2.
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: The Warriors head to Los Angeles likely even more shorthanded than they’ve been recently after playing the front end of a back-to-back on Monday night. With key players expected to be out and an 7.5-point spread, I’m looking elsewhere in this game for a bet.
Golden State’s struggles will likely come early as they’ve struggled early since Curry’s most recent injury.
In the past four games without Curry, the Warriors have failed to cover a first-quarter spread, have a -22 Point Differential — thanks to poor defense — and the 11th-worst first-quarter Defensive Rating in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats.
I like the Clippers to get out to an early lead against the Warriors in a letdown spot. I like them in the first half as well, but I’ll focus on a quarter in which the Warriors have struggled lately.
Integrating the new Clipper additions may not be smooth, but the only player likely to start or get heavy first-quarter minutes is Gordon — the most seasoned veteran of the group.
Another factor is Wiggins’ ankle injury. He was listed questionable before Monday’s game and there’s a solid chance he and Thompson (injury management) sit Tuesday given the Warriors’ tendency to rest guys on back-to-backs.
I think this is a great spot for L.A. I like the Clippers 1Q at anything better than -3.5 — FanDuel currently has -2.5 at -106 odds and -3.5 at +116.
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