NBA Odds, Best Bets: Our Top Picks for Monday, Including Bulls vs. Spurs, Pelicans vs. Raptors (Feb. 14)
Ronald Cortes/Getty Images. Pictured: DeMar DeRozan #11 of the Chicago Bulls.
- Monday's NBA slate features nine games in total but two are standing out for our betting experts.
- They have found three angles in Spurs vs. Bulls and like the spread in Raptors-Pelicans.
- Read on for their analysis and bets for tonight.
With the NFL season in the rear view mirror, the NBA enters the limelight on Monday with nine games to bet on. Our Action Network NBA analysts have identified four best bets for tonight’s games, including three bets – a total pick, spread pick and a prop bet – for tonight’s Spurs vs Bulls game on NBA TV. Keep reading for their best bets and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls
Raheem Palmer: Over the past two weeks, the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs haven’t been exactly locking all windows and doors as the 76ers’ former play-by-play announcer Marc Zumoff would say.
The Bulls are 24th in Defensive Rating, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage-time minutes while the Spurs are 19th allowing 115.5. The Bulls simply don’t have their best defensive players in Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso, and it’s no surprise they’ve gone over in eight out of their last 10 games, with their games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets being the only exception.
The Hornets game ended 121-109 with the total getting bet up nearly 7 points and went under the original line of 230.5 by just a half point. The Spurs have gone over in three out of their last four games as well with their only under coming against an offensively inept Cleveland Cavaliers team with one of the best defenses in the league.
With the Spurs ranking 19th in halfcourt defense, 28th in opponent midrange shooting percentage (43.7%) and 20th in opponent 3-point field goal shooting percentage (36%), I’m not expecting them to slow down DeMar Derozan and company. Along with the Bulls defensive struggles, this feels like another over.
My model makes this game 237, so I’ll be on the over here.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Chicago Bulls
Austin Wang: The San Antonio Spurs have surprisingly been one of the best first quarter teams in the league this season. They are a league-best 35-19-1 ATS in the 1st quarter and have gone 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
On the contrary, despite being one of the league’s best teams, the Bulls are a league-worst 21-34 ATS in the first quarter.
The Spurs are 10th in the Net Rating (+4.6) in the first quarter, while the Bulls are 17th in Net Rating (-0.6).
The Bulls will be missing star guard Zach LaVine, and Javonte Green is listed as questionable, so they will be even more short-handed. In addition, they are notorious for getting off to slow-starts.
Dejounte Murray, on the other hand, has been a man possessed in recent games. He has earned himself his first trip to the All-Star game and has been a walking triple-double. He should feast early on a Bulls’ defense that is missing Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball.
My pick is on the Spurs 1Q +1.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Chicago Bulls
Joe Dellera: The Spurs head to Chicago to take on the Bulls in a game with the highest total on today’s NBA Slate (234.5). This total is rightfully high considering the Spurs have the fifth-fastest Pace in the league, and the Bulls are 13th in Pace. Both teams have below average Adjusted Defensive Ratings with the Spurs in 18th (111.3) and the Bulls in 23rd (112.5).
I’m keying in on Keldon Johnson in this matchup because he is a player whose stock is on the rise with the Spurs trading Derrick White. Johnson has already had a strong year, and since January 1st these are his stats:
Keldon Johnson | 32.1 minutes | 16.6 points | 5.1 rebounds | 2.1 assists | 2.7 3s (41.1%)
Without Derrick White, these numbers should improve. Keldon Johnson has been crushing his points prop. Books continue to set his points line at 15.5, and he’s gone over that in 10 of his last 11 games while averaging 18.7 points during that stretch. He will clear this against the Bulls on Monday in what should be a fast paced game.
Toronto Raptors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Matt Moore: I have this modeled at Raptors -6.4 on full-season numbers, giving me about two points of value. There are some good trends here as well. Toronto is 14-8-1 (64%) ATS after a loss this season; they’ll be pretty irked about their loss to Denver Saturday.
The Pelicans are a better team than their regular-season numbers will show, but so is Toronto. The Raptors are in the midst of another spurt of good play; they’ve been a streaky team all season.
Gary Trent Jr. and Fred VanVleet make up a difficult matchup combo in the backcourt. The benches on these two teams are a wash at best and maybe a slight swing to the Pelicans, but luckily the Raptors are just playing starters 40 minutes a night, so there’s an advantage there.
Jonas Valanciunas will eat in this matchup with no real big to contest him for Toronto, but so should the Raptors’ backcourt. It’s tight, but at -3.5, I’m laying fewer than two possessions in a game Toronto should win, putting it in the free throw zone.
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