Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 8 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More

Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 8 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More article feature image
Credit:

Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Blake Griffin

In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight's slate:

  • Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons (-11.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards (-3), 7 p.m. ET
  • Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Milwaukee Bucks (-5) at Miami Heat, 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV
  • Portland Trail Blazers (-8) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
  • Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets (-12), 8 p.m. ET
  • New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs (-13.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV

All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Jump to:Public Bets | Notable Injuries | DFS Values | Player Props |
Staff Favorite Bets | Pro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends



Friday NBA: Most Public Bets

  • Bucks -5 at Heat: 75% of bets
  • Rockets -12 vs. Suns: 67% of bets
  • Wizards -3 vs. Hornets: 67% of bets
  • Lakers +12 at Pistons: 63% of bets
  • Over 219.5 in Bucks-Heat: 62% of bets


Friday NBA: Injuries to Know

In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of tonight's key injury situations.

  • Houston Rockets: PG Chris Paul (rest) is out.
  • Los Angeles Lakers: SF LeBron James (rest) is out.

Here's a snippet from that piece on the Lakers:

Friday will mark the first game this season without James, Brandon Ingram (shoulder) and Lonzo Ball (ankle). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Hart and Moe Wagner are options to replace James in the starting lineup.

Despite several key absences, the Lakers can still field a full rotation. Kyle Kuzma figures to benefit from an increased usage rate, while Rajon Rondo has provided a team-high +10.3% assist rate differential with James, Ingram, Ball and Chandler off the court this season, per our NBA On/Off tool.

Even with a majority of the team’s offensive firepower missing, the Lakers provide little value in DFS with an uncertain rotation. No player currently carries over a 78 rating in the Phan Model on DraftKings or FanDuel.

Alex Caruso makes for a viable punt option after playing at least 26.5 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s coming off 29.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. Wagner costs just $3,400 on DraftKings and is worth a look in tournaments if he draws the start. Rondo and Kuzma will also garner GPP consideration with an expected bump in usage.

For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.



Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.

Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:

  • Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,200) at Spurs: +10.16 Projected Plus/Minus
  • De'Anthony Melton ($3,100) at Rockets: +9.52 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Willy Hernangomez ($3,200) at Wizards: +9.08 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Deandre Ayton ($6,100) at Rockets: +8.65 Projected Plus/Minus

I know, it's scary to trust Mudiay as the slate's best pure value play. It's just hard for him to fail in this spot at this low $4,200 salary. He'll be the lead guy with the Knicks' other point guards — Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina — both out with injuries.

As a result, we have Mudiay projected for about 30 minutes with a usage rate near 30%. The Spurs defense is nowhere near as stout as it's been in years past, so don't be scared off by that either. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and take the value.

We also have a new metric at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score on DraftKings is Pistons big man Blake Griffin, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.

It's not hard to figure out which stud will be owned tonight: James Harden without Chris Paul against the lowly Suns is a lock to be the most popular player of the evening. That means the other studs should provide value, and Griffin has a pristine matchup as well against the terrible Lakers without LeBron James.


Friday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently four player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.

One of those is James Hardento go over his 6.5 assists prop. He's hit double digits in each of his last two games, and he'll operate the majority of tonight's game as the sole point guard with Chris Paul out for rest.

Per our NBA on/off tool, in 22 games this season with CP3, Harden has increased his assist rate by a ridiculous 6.9%. In those games he's averaged 9.1 assists, which is right around where we have him tonight. As such, even when this line moves up, it'll still have value even up to 8 assists.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.

Friday NBA Staff Favorite Bets

Matt Moore: Wizards -3.5 vs. Hornets

There's a few overlapping trends here.

The Wizards are 16-4 against the spread at home vs. opponents with a 107 Defensive Rating or worse, and the Hornets clock in at 111.3. There’s also a small gap between the bet ticket percentage and money percentage (61% money to 65% tickets) on the Wizards as of writing, and sharps are 10-12 against Washington this season.

The Hornets seem to be in free fall, and both Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller are questionable.

Ken Barkley: Hornets +3.5 at Wizards

I am actually going the opposite way here, which might be surprising and contrarian, but I think this individual situation sets up pretty well for Charlotte.

These teams played a dramatic game exactly a week ago, which the Hornets won by one. Since then, the Wizards have played three games (this will be their fourth in the last week), while Charlotte essentially sat as many injured people as possible against Houston (taking a schedule loss) and have had three days off.

Fatigue/rest absolutely favors the Hornets here. Whatever their best is right now, you should get it tonight.

Although this line makes sense given how these teams have played the second half of the season, I think Charlotte is getting healthier while Washington is in a spot where it is more likely to be worn out (and Trevor Ariza is questionable).

In a vacuum, sure, I think Washington’s better. But not under tonight’s specific circumstances.

With reinforcements hopefully coming back, I’ll take Charlotte.

Moore: Bucks -5 at Heat

Teams are throwing more and more zone at the Bucks to try and slow them down. It’s a worthwhile strategy, but one that can work only so long.

The Heat have been at the forefront of using zone and used it 14 times in a win over Milwaukee back in December, forcing the Bucks into just 0.53 points per possession and 36% shooting.

In January, the two teams met again, and the Heat tried zone on 15 possessions. The Bucks then scored 1.537 points per possession with a 75% eFG mark. The Bucks have proven time and time again this season that they can adjust and adapt to whatever you throw at them.

Miami has been more dangerous lately, and the lineups featuring Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk have slain. But with the line less than two possessions, I’m nabbing the Bucks to solve the zone issue again.

Bryan Mears: Bulls +9 at Clippers

I built a trend the other day looking at revenge spots in the NBA. Turns out, it's a thing and has provided betting value in the past.

According to Bet Labs, dogs that failed to cover and win their previous matchup against a team and then don't have public support are 61% ATS in their next matchup. They crush the first-half spread even more, covering 64.1% of the time.

The Bulls match this trend tonight, as do the Pelicans at home against the Blazers. I'll be betting both full-game and first-half spreads in those.

Moore: Joel Embiid Over 2.5 assists

You know who sends a lot of doubles at the post? The Kings.

The Kings average the third-most hard doubles in the post per game. And while their scramble to recover is generally pretty good, on a road-road back-to-back, I’m betting Embiid tears them up with quick cuts to Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris or kick-outs to shooters.

Our FantasyLabs prop system has this as a 10-value bet, and that combined with the Kings’ scheme has me in.


Friday NBA Pro System of the Day

At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Rested Road Teams." It identifies games in which there's a fatigue disparity between teams, leading to spread betting value:

Also, as you can see above, it focuses on games later in the season when teams are more likely to be fatigued.

This system has hit at an impressive 59.9% rate historically, good for a 16.9% ROI.

There's one match tonight:

  • Hornets +3 at Wizards, 7 p.m. ET


Friday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game

  • Lakers at Pistons: The Lakers are 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games.
  • Hornets at Wizards: The Wizards are 21-12 straight-up and ATS at home.
  • Kings at 76ers: The under is 9-1 in the 76ers' last 10 games.
  • Bucks at Heat: The Heat are 14-20-1 ATS at home but 21-10-1 as underdogs.
  • Blazers at Pelicans: The Blazers are 24-14 ATS as favorites.
  • Suns at Rockets: The under is 26-17 in Suns conference games.
  • Knicks at Spurs: The Spurs are 21-12 ATS at home.
  • Bulls at Clippers: The Clippers are 24-9 ATS as favorites.

For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.

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