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Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 8 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More

Mar 15, 2019 4:56 PM EDT
Credit:

Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Blake Griffin

In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight’s slate:

  • Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons (-11.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards (-3), 7 p.m. ET
  • Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Milwaukee Bucks (-5) at Miami Heat, 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV
  • Portland Trail Blazers (-8) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
  • Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets (-12), 8 p.m. ET
  • New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs (-13.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV

All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Jump to: Public Bets | Notable Injuries | DFS Values | Player Props |
Staff Favorite Bets | Pro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends
 

Friday NBA: Most Public Bets

  • Bucks -5 at Heat: 75% of bets
  • Rockets -12 vs. Suns: 67% of bets
  • Wizards -3 vs. Hornets: 67% of bets
  • Lakers +12 at Pistons: 63% of bets
  • Over 219.5 in Bucks-Heat: 62% of bets


Friday NBA: Injuries to Know

In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of tonight’s key injury situations.

  • Houston Rockets: PG Chris Paul (rest) is out.
  • Los Angeles Lakers: SF LeBron James (rest) is out.

Here’s a snippet from that piece on the Lakers:

Friday will mark the first game this season without James, Brandon Ingram (shoulder) and Lonzo Ball (ankle). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Hart and Moe Wagner are options to replace James in the starting lineup.

Despite several key absences, the Lakers can still field a full rotation. Kyle Kuzma figures to benefit from an increased usage rate, while Rajon Rondo has provided a team-high +10.3% assist rate differential with James, Ingram, Ball and Chandler off the court this season, per our NBA On/Off tool.

Even with a majority of the team’s offensive firepower missing, the Lakers provide little value in DFS with an uncertain rotation. No player currently carries over a 78 rating in the Phan Model on DraftKings or FanDuel.

Alex Caruso makes for a viable punt option after playing at least 26.5 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s coming off 29.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. Wagner costs just $3,400 on DraftKings and is worth a look in tournaments if he draws the start. Rondo and Kuzma will also garner GPP consideration with an expected bump in usage.

For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.

Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate.

Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:

  • Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,200) at Spurs: +10.16 Projected Plus/Minus
  • De’Anthony Melton ($3,100) at Rockets: +9.52 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Willy Hernangomez ($3,200) at Wizards: +9.08 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Deandre Ayton ($6,100) at Rockets: +8.65 Projected Plus/Minus

I know, it’s scary to trust Mudiay as the slate’s best pure value play. It’s just hard for him to fail in this spot at this low $4,200 salary. He’ll be the lead guy with the Knicks’ other point guards — Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina — both out with injuries.

As a result, we have Mudiay projected for about 30 minutes with a usage rate near 30%. The Spurs defense is nowhere near as stout as it’s been in years past, so don’t be scared off by that either. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and take the value.

We also have a new metric at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score on DraftKings is Pistons big man Blake Griffin, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.

It’s not hard to figure out which stud will be owned tonight: James Harden without Chris Paul against the lowly Suns is a lock to be the most popular player of the evening. That means the other studs should provide value, and Griffin has a pristine matchup as well against the terrible Lakers without LeBron James.


Friday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently four player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.

One of those is James Harden to go over his 6.5 assists prop. He’s hit double digits in each of his last two games, and he’ll operate the majority of tonight’s game as the sole point guard with Chris Paul out for rest.

Per our NBA on/off tool, in 22 games this season with CP3, Harden has increased his assist rate by a ridiculous 6.9%. In those games he’s averaged 9.1 assists, which is right around where we have him tonight. As such, even when this line moves up, it’ll still have value even up to 8 assists.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.

Friday NBA Staff Favorite Bets