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Tuesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 5 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More

Feb 12, 2019 4:31 PM EST
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Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry

In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight’s slate:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (-5) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5), 8 p.m. ET
  • San Antonio Spurs (-4) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
  • Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5), 8 p.m. ET on TNT
  • Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors (-9), 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT

All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Jump to: Public Bets | Notable Injuries | DFS Values | Player Props | Staff Favorite Bets |
Pro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends


Tuesday NBA: Most Public Bets

  • Lakers -5 at Hawks: 82% of bets
  • Spurs -4.5 at Grizzlies: 75% of bets
  • Warriors -8.5 vs. Jazz: 74% of bets
  • Sixers -6.5 vs. Celtics: 72% of bets
  • Over 227.5 in Jazz-Warriors: 70% of bets


Tuesday NBA: Injuries to Know

In today’s NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting impact of the slate’s key injury situation:

  • Boston Celtics PG Kyrie Irving (knee) is out against the 76ers.

Here’s a snippet from that piece on Irving:

Irving has the biggest Net Rating differential of any Celtics player this season, as the team is 5.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court vs. off. They’ve fared just fine without him in the lineup, however, going 7-2 in the nine games he’s missed.

A deeper dive into those nine games reveals a sample littered with weak opposition and games the Celtics were well-equipped to win even without Irving. Only one of those nine games was against a team with a record above .500 (Utah), and they lost that game by eight on the road.

When the Celtics are either on the road or facing a team .500 or better, they’re 0-4 ATS and 2-2 straight-up in that sample.

For all injury news, plus information on traded/waived players and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.


Tuesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

With rotations still in flux due to the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 on DraftKings:

  • JaVale McGee ($4,800) at Hawks: +10.9 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Kenrich Williams ($4,900) vs. Magic: +8.76 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Trae Young ($6,700) vs. Lakers: +8.29 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Marcus Morris ($5,000) at Sixers: +8.21 Projected Plus/Minus

McGee is the slate’s best value currently, and he’s coming off an impressive game against the 76ers in which he went for 43.75 DraftKings points thanks to a 21-13 line in 26 minutes. He’s currently being tasked for a few more minutes per game after the Lakers’ trade deadline moves.

We also have a new metric this year at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued GPP plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on FanDuel is Magic center Nikola Vucevic, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus but should have low ownership.

Vucevic has been a bit up and down as a fantasy asset of late, but he’s in a great pace-up spot tonight against the Pelicans, who rank sixth in pace this year. Despite the defensive talent on the roster, New Orleans has been disappointing on that end, ranking 25th in efficiency.


Tuesday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently a whopping 16 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have hit at a 57% rate.

One is Kenrich Williams to go over his 7.5-rebound prop. Over his last seven games — when he really jumped into the rotation — he’s averaged 9.4 rebounds per game.

He is a nice matchup as well against an Orlando team that ranks just 25th in offensive rebound rate this season. We currently have Williams projected for 10.1 rebounds.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.


Tuesday NBA: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets

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