Tuesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 5 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Los Angeles Lakers (-5) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5), 8 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs (-4) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5), 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors (-9), 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Pro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends
Tuesday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Lakers -5 at Hawks: 82% of bets
- Spurs -4.5 at Grizzlies: 75% of bets
- Warriors -8.5 vs. Jazz: 74% of bets
- Sixers -6.5 vs. Celtics: 72% of bets
- Over 227.5 in Jazz-Warriors: 70% of bets
Tuesday NBA: Injuries to Know
In today’s NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting impact of the slate’s key injury situation:
- Boston Celtics PG Kyrie Irving (knee) is out against the 76ers.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on Irving:
Irving has the biggest Net Rating differential of any Celtics player this season, as the team is 5.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court vs. off. They’ve fared just fine without him in the lineup, however, going 7-2 in the nine games he’s missed.
A deeper dive into those nine games reveals a sample littered with weak opposition and games the Celtics were well-equipped to win even without Irving. Only one of those nine games was against a team with a record above .500 (Utah), and they lost that game by eight on the road.
When the Celtics are either on the road or facing a team .500 or better, they’re 0-4 ATS and 2-2 straight-up in that sample.
Tuesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
With rotations still in flux due to the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 on DraftKings:
- JaVale McGee ($4,800) at Hawks: +10.9 Projected Plus/Minus
- Kenrich Williams ($4,900) vs. Magic: +8.76 Projected Plus/Minus
- Trae Young ($6,700) vs. Lakers: +8.29 Projected Plus/Minus
- Marcus Morris ($5,000) at Sixers: +8.21 Projected Plus/Minus
McGee is the slate’s best value currently, and he’s coming off an impressive game against the 76ers in which he went for 43.75 DraftKings points thanks to a 21-13 line in 26 minutes. He’s currently being tasked for a few more minutes per game after the Lakers’ trade deadline moves.
We also have a new metric this year at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued GPP plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on FanDuel is Magic center Nikola Vucevic, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus but should have low ownership.
Vucevic has been a bit up and down as a fantasy asset of late, but he’s in a great pace-up spot tonight against the Pelicans, who rank sixth in pace this year. Despite the defensive talent on the roster, New Orleans has been disappointing on that end, ranking 25th in efficiency.
Tuesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently a whopping 16 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have hit at a 57% rate.
One is Kenrich Williams to go over his 7.5-rebound prop. Over his last seven games — when he really jumped into the rotation — he’s averaged 9.4 rebounds per game.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Tuesday NBA: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets
John Ewing: Jaylen Brown Over 13.5 Points
Kyrie Irving won’t play in Tuesday’s game; the All-Star is averaging 17.9 shot attempts and 23.6 points per game.
Jaylen Brown is a likely candidate to absorb some of Kyrie’s shots. In nine games that Kyrie has missed this season, Brown has averaged 15.3 shots and 18.2 points per game, up from his season averages of 10.8 attempts and 12.7 PPG.
Brown doesn’t have an easy matchup against the Sixers, but with the increased workload I like him to go over 13.5 points.
Bryan Mears: Under 225 in Celtics-76ers
I have two system matches on the under in this game. One is a Pro System called “Reverse Line Movement Unders,” and it has boasted a 34% historical Return on Investment (ROI):
Further, home teams playing in a game after scoring 130-plus points have hit the under in the subsequent game 56% of the time. It’s possible the public is overreacting to the 76ers dominating lately after acquiring Tobias Harris at the trade deadline.
Further, I think Boston will struggle in this one, as I wrote in today’s Boston-Philly betting preview. Give me the under here.
Jack Settleman: Joel Embiid Under 28.5 Points
Boston has been Embiid’s kryptonite during his few years in the NBA. He’s averaging only 22.5 PPG in 11 career games against the Celtics. In those 11 games, he’s gone over 28.5 points only twice.
In addition, you’re getting Embiid’s points prop at the height of the market due to his dominance over the past few weeks. Our FantasyLabs Props tool agrees on this under with his projection for tonight being just 25 points.
Matt Moore: Gordon Hayward Over 10.5 Points, Marcus Morris Over 14.5 Points
Keep an eye the rest of the season on scoring forwards against the Sixers. A sneaky underrated element of Tobias Harris’ impact is that, along with his tremendous scoring and versatility, he’s a disaster defensively.
He wasn’t always, but that’s definitely become who he is the past few years. Kyle Kuzma’s massive scoring night Sunday? Harris played his part in that.
I like both of these overs here based on the propensity for Harris to guard both of them at different points. And in those stretches, I’m betting the pace picks up and the scoring does as well.
The Celtics need Hayward to get going more than ever. Now’s as good a time as any to get ahead of the wave, and Morris, coming off an emotional reaction to the losses over the weekend, has as much on the line he has to back up.
Tuesday NBA: Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called “Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs.” The name describes it well: It identifies overs in which there’s more money on them than bets — likely indicating sharp money.
This system has produced a 7.6% Return on Investment (ROI) since 2015 — when we first started tracking bet and money percentages. It has gone 49-37 this season, good for a 10.9% ROI.
This is a particularly intriguing system because it’s measuring the win rate against the closing number. That means sharp money is pushing the over up — and the system is still profitable. It’s always a good idea to get the best of the number, but there’s still meat left on this particular bone.
There are two matches tonight:
- Over 238 in Lakers-Hawks
- Over 226.5 in Magic-Pelicans
Tuesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Lakers at Hawks: The Hawks are 24-32 ATS, including 7-17 at home.
- Magic at Pelicans: The Magic are +6.48 units as moneyline underdogs.
- Spurs at Grizzlies: The under is 26-8 in Grizzlies conference games.
- Celtics at 76ers: The Celtics are 9-16-1 ATS on the road and 3-6 as underdogs.
- Jazz at Warriors: The Warriors are 21-7 straight-up but 11-16-1 ATS at home.