Monday’s NBA Expert Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets, Including Timberwolves vs. Jazz

Monday’s NBA Expert Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets, Including Timberwolves vs. Jazz article feature image
Credit:

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32).

With nine games on Monday’s NBA schedule there are plenty of matchups to chose from. Our staff has settled on there specific games where they see some betting value:

  • 7 p.m. ET: Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks 
  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets 
  • 9 p.m. ET: Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz 

See how they are betting tonight’s slate below:


Odds as of Monday at 3:30 p.m. ET


John Ewing: Cavs at Knicks

  • Spread: Knicks -3
  • Over/Under: 211
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

A majority of spread tickets are on the Cavaliers, but the Knicks have moved from -2.5 to -3. What gives? We are tracking a higher percentage of spread dollars on New York.

This is an indication that bigger bets, often from professionals, are backing the Knicks. You might be thinking that it is nice to know which side the sharps are on, but the line movement killed the value.

That is a fair thought, but we’ve found using Bet Labs that it has still been profitable to bet an NBA game after the line moves in certain situations.

Since we began tracking spread dollars percentages in the 2015-16 season, teams matching this system have returned a profit of $5,383 for a $100 bettor.

Professional bettors don’t always win, but being on the same side as smart money is advantageous. Money percentages and line movement indicate that sharp bettors are on the Knicks on Monday.

The PICK: Knicks -3
[In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]

Wob: Pacers at Nets

  • Spread: Nets -3.5
  • Over/Under: 217.5
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

We’re at the point with the Nets that I’d almost prefer that Kyrie Irving is playing if I’m backing the opposite side. Brooklyn is the second-fastest paced team in the league, while hanging an Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating of 12th and 20th respectively. What this tells me is Kenny Atkinson’s ‘pace and space’ style of selfless basketball is just not working (yet) with Irving running the ship.

That’s what made D’Angelo Russell such a perfect fit for this offense, he is best out of high pick-and-rolls and everybody is always moving. Not so much this time around, as Kyrie demands the ball and needs it in isolation.

Meanwhile, the Pacers are finally getting healthy again while the Nets deal with their own injury problems plaguing the roster top to bottom.

I’m taking this tonight because if this game is played in Indianapolis, the line is the complete opposite: IND -3.5. Barclay’s Center is not Cameron Indoor Stadium. This should be a PK. I’ll take the points thank you very much.

The PICK: Pacers +3.5
[In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]

Brandon Anderson: Timberwolves at Jazz 

  • Spread: Timberwolves +9.5
  • Over/Under: 217.5
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET

It was a weekend to forget for the Timberwolves. The Wolves were blown out at home by the Wizards and the Westbrook-and-Capela-less Rockets, losing by 20 on back-to-back nights. Maybe this team is actually missing Andrew Wiggins?

Wiggins is doubtful Monday, and Josh Okogie and Shabazz Napier appear likely to miss too. That means this is all on Karl-Anthony Towns, and Minnesota would have it no other way. In past seasons, you’d worry about foul trouble for KAT against Rudy Gobert in a game like this, but Towns has only hit five fouls twice this year and has yet to foul out.

Expect a huge usage and minutes night for Towns, with the ball in his hands a lot. KAT had only three assists in those two blowout losses, so you can bet on the coaching staff pushing him to get his teammates more involved.

He’s averaging 3.7 dimes per game and has gone over 3.5 assists in six of 11 games this season. Our Player Prop tool rates this a 10 out of 10 with a projection of 4.6 assists, and all the better that the odds are currently in your favor.

The PICK: Karl-Anthony Towns over 3.5 assists
[In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]

Matt Moore: Blazers at Rockets

  • Spread: Rockets -7.5
  • Over/Under: 230.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

Pop quiz! Which team has the best Defensive Rating over the past five games? The Houston Rockets.

After their demolition at the hands of the Miami Heat two weeks ago, which may or may not have been related to being on South Beach over the weekend with an off night the same evening as a big UFC fight, the Rockets have stiffened up defensively. James Harden has his lowest on-court Defensive Rating since 2005, and it shows on the tape.

Meanwhile, they’re getting more and more contributions, and their biggest efficiency drag (Eric Gordon, surprisingly) has been on the shelf after surgery. Their role players are stepping up.

The Blazers, meanwhile, have very few weapons. So few in fact that they are close to signing Carmelo Anthony. Desperation is a stinky cologne, and the Blazers are covered in it.

The under has hit in the Rockets’ last five, and yet this number is up at 230.5. Houston may put up a big number, but I still think this winds up in the 220s at most. Give me the under.

The PICK: Under 230.5
[In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]

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