NBA Expert Betting Picks (Tuesday, Jan. 14): Best Bets for Jazz vs. Nets, Knicks vs. Bucks
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Reggie Bullock (25), RJ Barrett (9) of the New York Knicks.
There are seven games on Tuesday evening’s NBA schedule, and our experts are betting on these three specific matchups:
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets
- 8 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
- 8 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies
See which bets they’re making below.
Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
John Ewing: Jazz at Nets
- Spread: Jazz -3.5
- Over/Under: 222.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
At the time of writing, 64% of tickets are on the Jazz-Nets over. The total has increased from 218 to 222.5. Sharp action is responsible for the line movement.
We know this because nearly 70% of the dollars are on the over as well. This means that larger bets, likely from pros, expect tonight’s game to be shootout.
Even though the total has increased it has still been profitable to follow sharp line movement when there is a great amount of dollars than tickets on the over.
A $100 bettor following this system would have returned a profit of $5,113 since 2015. Sharps don’t always win but being on the same side as the pros is a smart strategy.
The PICK: Over 222.5
Brandon Anderson: Rockets at Grizzlies
- Spread: Rockets -5
- Over/Under: 240.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
There’s one absolutely eye-popping number when you look at the lines tonight. It’s not the Clippers -15 against the lowly Cavs or the Bucks -17 against the pathetic Knicks. No, the craziest number on tonight’s slate is the Rockets-Grizzlies total, which is at 240.5 — and rising.
The Rockets like to push the pace and score a lot of points. So do the new era Grizzlies. This line opened at 238 and we might get another point or two by tip.
Remember, the oddsmakers know all the same stuff we do (and more). They already baked the pace and scoring into this line, and they know we expect points.
What if the Rockets win a high-scoring, fast-paced 121-119 shootout? That would be a ton of points … and the under would still hit.
Houston has more unders than overs this season even with all their scoring, and their under is 12-7-1 on the road. Add in Russell Westbrook’s absence — the one guy who really pushes pace on this team — and I’ll take the under and sweat this one out.
The PICK: Under 240.5
Bryan Mears: Knicks at Bucks
- Spread: Bucks -17
- Over/Under: 229
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
Oh god, what am I about to write?
I … would lean … Knicks +17.
OK, I don’t feel good about it at all. The Knicks stink. We know the Knicks stink. They’ll be without Marcus Morris, who is one of their few solid veterans.
But it’s also 17 points against the Milwaukee Bucks who don’t mind resting their players. The Bucks beat this Knicks team by 21 a couple weeks ago and in that game no Bucks player logged more than 25 minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo played 24 and got up just nine shot attempts.
The Bucks are awesome. Their bench is awesome. They should absolutely dominate this team. But the starters are going to likely play just half the game, which means that the Knicks could sneak a backdoor cover in here. The Knicks in that last game won the second and fourth quarters — when the bench guys were all in.
In that game, the Knicks actually got a bunch of open and wide-open shots. They’re coming off perhaps their best win of the season over the Miami Heat in which they scored 131.9 points/100. They got out in transition and protected the ball well without Dennis Smith Jr., who is out again tonight.
Further, while the Bucks are 23-18 against the spread this season, they’re just 7-11 as a double-digit favorite.
Against the first-half spread, they’re 22-17-2 overall. As an eight-point favorite or more (they’re -10 today) in the first half, they’re 2-4. They have a poor record in the second halves of games where they’re big favorites, which makes sense.
There’s also currently more spread money than bets on the Knicks, which has historically been a good sign:
And per Sports Insights, we’ve tracked a reverse line move on the Knicks and nothing (including steam moves) on the Bucks.
Do I trust the Knicks to cover 17? Absolutely not. But if you were itching to feel bad about yourself, there’s the reasoning behind it.