The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers meet in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Our experts Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson break down why the market is disrespecting Detroit, the fading legs of Donovan Mitchell, and why this series is destined for overtime games.
Let's get into our Pistons vs. Cavaliers series preview for the second round of the NBA playoffs.
Pistons vs Cavaliers Series Odds
Series Winner Odds: Pistons -125, Cavaliers +105
Series Spread: Pistons -1.5 games (+180), Cavaliers +1.5 games (-220)
Total Games: Over/Under 5.5 games (+100o /+120u)
Odds provided by DraftKings.
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NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Series Preview: Pistons vs Cavaliers
The Series Outlook
Brandon Anderson: In the market, the Pistons are basically priced as -122 favorites with the Cavs at +100. It is a razor-thin margin. But Detroit is the 1-seed, they have home court, and they have the best player in the series.
When the number is this close, you have to lean into the team with the best player and home court. My ten words: Maybe the most toss-up series we’ve ever analyzed on Buckets.
Matt Moore: I’ve been waiting for the opportunity to fade Detroit for months, but I can’t believe I’m going to back the Pistons again.
I did research going back 20 years looking at teams that finish outside the top 10 in effective field goal percentage—they historically do not escape the second round. And yet, the market is simply disrespecting Detroit because they went seven games with Orlando.
I adjusted my model to try and find a reason to take Cleveland, and it still spat out Pistons value. My ten words: I can't believe I'm going to back the Pistons again.
When the Cavaliers have the ball
This is strength on strength. The Cavaliers' offense (6th in the regular season) takes on a Pistons defense that ranked 2nd. The Cavs are better on twos, but the Pistons are the #1 three-point percentage defense in the league.
Matt Moore: Everything runs through James Harden and Donovan Mitchell in high pick-and-roll, but Detroit is the best team in the league at "blowing up" screens. They don't trail, they don't hedge—they just wedge themselves between the big and the ball.
James Harden is going to have a hard time because he lacks a mid-range game; he’s either throwing a floater or a lob. Ausar Thompson is an elite "recovery" defender who will swat those floaters from behind.
In the regular season, the Cavs scored a disgusting 0.767 points per possession in pick-and-roll ball-handler situations against Detroit. That’s a 77 offensive rating. Detroit is going to collapse the paint and dare Cleveland to win with math.
When the Pistons have the ball
This is the "soft vs. physical" matchup. Detroit wants to live in the paint, where they rank #1 in the league, but that is exactly where Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen specialize.
Brandon Anderson: This series is going to be won or lost on the glass. Cleveland is 37-9 when they win the rebounding battle and 18-25 when they don't. Detroit was +21 in rebounding over the final two regular-season meetings.
Jalen Duren was a monster in those games, grabbing 13 offensive rebounds. If the Pistons win the rebounding battle, they win the series.
Matt Moore: Cleveland’s defensive scheme is to play at the level of the screen to prevent Cade Cunningham from murdering them with pull-up jumpers. They want to wall off the rim with Mobley.
Cade struggled with finishing over those bigs in the regular season (averaging just 18.5 PPG), but the secondary playmaking from Duren on the short roll is the counter.
If Cleveland can't handle the shoulder bumps and the physicality of Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, they are going to fold.
The Player Hierarchy
Cade Cunningham (Tier 1)
Donovan Mitchell / Evan Mobley / Jalen Duren (Tier 2)
Ausar Thompson / James Harden (Tier 3)
Jarrett Allen / Tobias Harris (Tier 4)
Brandon Anderson: I have Cade as the best player in the series, in a tier by himself. Donovan Mitchell is a great playoff performer, but he looked exhausted at the end of the Toronto series.
Harden is probably going to be a mineshaft play for me—I simply do not trust him in a Game 6 or Game 7 on the road. If this goes long, I trust Cade to be the best player on the floor.
Cavaliers vs Pistons Series Picks
Matt Moore: Pistons -1.5 Games (+185)
Despite my skepticism of their shooting, my model shows 11 cents of value on the Detroit series spread. The market is overreacting to them struggling with Orlando. Detroit is the better, more physical team.
Brandon Anderson: Pistons in 7 (+450)
This series is destined to go long. I looked for overtime odds because these games are going to be so close. If we get to a Game 7, I’m fading James Harden and backing the best player in the series (Cade) at home.
Matt Moore: 1+ Overtime Games (+260)
One or more overtime games is +260 at BetMGM. Two-plus is +2000. I'll be on both of them in this series. I looked for overtime bets because I was like, if this series is actually as close as I think it is, there should be overtimes.
Brandon Anderson: Sam Merrill Series 3s Leader (+3500)
Sam Merrill was an absolute demon against the Pistons this year. He made three, five, four and three threes in those games. He shot 15-30 on 7.5 attempts per game. He knows if he's on the court, his job is to get the shot up.
Game 1 Best Bet: Cavaliers Moneyline (+141)
Brandon Anderson: JB Bickerstaff is 1-5 ATS in Game 1s. This is a "Matt Mitchell Rule" play—if I think they cover the small spread, I'm taking the plus-money ML.
I also like the Jalen Duren Rebounds Escalator (12+, 14+, 16+) and the Sam Merrill Three-Pointers Escalator (3+, 4+, 5+).
Sam Merrill made 15-of-30 threes against Detroit this year; if he's on the court, he's firing.
