The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs meet in the Western Conference Semifinals. Our experts Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson break down the "mangled mess" of Wolves injuries, the evolution of Victor Wembanyama, and the best ways to bet this series.
Let's get into our Spurs vs. Timberwolves series preview and predictions for the second round of the NBA playoffs.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Series Odds
Series Winner Odds: Spurs -1200, Timberwolves +700
Series Spread: Spurs -2.5 games (-225), Timberwolves +2.5 games (+185)
Total Games: Over/Under 5.5 games (-130o / +105u)
Odds provided by DraftKings.
If you want to trade on Spurs vs. Timberwolves at Kalshi, sign up using our Kalshi promo code. This prediction market app is legal in most states and offers a variety of unique markets beyond the NBA.
Spurs vs Timberwolves NBA Playoff Series Preview, Predictions
Brandon Anderson: Spurs in 5 (+400) & De'Aaron Fox Series Assist Leader (+270)
My series best bet is the Spurs to win in 5 games, specifically losing either Game 2 or Game 3. You can piece this together with exact outcome bets—Spurs winning Game 1, Minnesota stealing one of the next two out of desperation, and San Antonio closing in five.
My favorite bet, though, is De'Aaron Fox Series Assist Leader (+270) at DraftKings.
The market is pricing this based on regular-season Stephon Castle numbers, but the offense runs through Fox in the playoffs.
He had double-digit potential assists in every game last round except the one Wemby missed.
Matt Moore: Spurs Game 1 / Wolves to Win Series (+1800)
I’m going for the "Brandon Anderson special"—a juicy number that makes me a little nauseous. I’m betting Spurs Game 1 / Wolves Series at 18/1.
I don't expect Anthony Edwards back for Game 1, and the Wolves are likely without Ayo Dosunmu.
There’s a scenario where the Spurs take care of business early, but if Ant comes back for Game 2 or 3, this price is gone.
My model actually has San Antonio as an 89% favorite, but if you're betting on the Wolves, you're betting on the miracle return of the franchise player.
The Injury Report
Matt: Donte DiVincenzo is out with an Achilles tear. It sucks. Anthony Edwards has a knee bruise, and Brandon is skeptical that he plays at all.
The league's recalcitrance on the schedule is infuriating. It’s like that scene in Zero Dark Thirty—Adam Silver needs visual confirmation and DNA evidence before he'll admit the 82-game schedule is shredding these guys.
Ant is the franchise; he was already playing through runner's knee. If he's not back by the weekend, the Wolves are drawing dead.
Brandon: If the Spurs go up 2-0 and this series goes back to Minnesota, Ant plays. If it’s 3-1 Spurs going into Game 5 and he hasn't played yet? He’s done.
Joint injuries and pain management are different than calf/Achilles risks, but without Ant and Donte, the Wolves' spacing is just gone.
Minnesota is facing an elite Spurs defense with no guards. That is a nightmare.
When the Spurs Are on Offense
Brandon: I think Spurs offense versus Wolves defense is a fair fight. You’ve got the #4 offense against the #8 defense.
Minnesota’s defense is built around Rudy Gobert taking away the rim, but San Antonio was still able to score consistently getting downhill in the regular season.
My skepticism is whether the Spurs have a championship offense yet. They are a "very good" offense against a "trending toward elite" defense.
If Minnesota wins games, it has to be because their defense drags this series into the mud.
Matt: I’m watching the evolution of Victor Wembanyama. His three-point shot is the swing factor. There are games where he's 6-of-7 and you’re just dead. Then there are games where he’s 1-of-7.
Rudy and Victor are French national teammates; they know each other's games perfectly. But Victor hasn't filled out yet; he's still developing strength.
Once he finds his core strength, we're all dead. For now, Rudy can bother him, but even if Victor hits water from deep once or twice, the Wolves' defensive shell starts to crack.
When the Timberwolves Are on Offense
Brandon: This would be a mismatch if the Wolves were healthy; with the injuries, it’s a disaster for Minnesota.
San Antonio matches everything Minnesota wants to do. The Spurs are the #1 defensive rebounding team, so no second-chance points for Rudy. They are top 4 in fast-break points allowed and #1 in fewest fouls. There are no freebies.
Minnesota’s offense is drawing dead without Ant, Donte, and potentially Ayo. Everything will be a grind.
Matt: I think the Wolves need to gofive-out with Julius Randle and Naz Reid. You cannot challenge Wemby at the rim—he’ll snatch the lob out of the air or block the put-back attempt.
The Spurs run a shell defense that leads you into the teeth of the giant. But if you're kicking to bigs who can shoot, like Naz and Randle, you have a chance.
I’m taking Naz Reid Series 3-Point Leader (+1200).
The Spurs allow a ton of corner threes, and with Donte out, Naz is the primary beneficiary of those looks. He shot 46% on corner threes this season.
The Fox vs. Castle Assist Battle
Brandon: This is my favorite bet of the series. Stephon Castle is priced way too high in assists markets.
In the first round, the half-court offense ran entirely through De'Aaron Fox. He had double-digit potentials almost every game.
Castle gets his assists in transition and run-outs—the "March basketball" style. But in a slow-paced playoff grind against a set Minnesota defense, the ball is going to be in Fox's hands. He’s the default winner here at +270.
Matt: My only concern is if the Wolves play with defensive discipline and stay home on shooters.
If they refuse to help on Fox, he has to score 40 rather than rack up 10 assists. But if Fox gets downhill and forces that help, those assist numbers will skyrocket.
Plus, the Wolves are shorthanded and running a thin rotation—they’re going to get tired, and Fox is the fastest guy on the court.
