The second round of the NBA playoffs resumes with another pair of Game 1s today—Tuesday, May 5. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified a total of four best bets for tonight's games—including picks for Cavaliers vs. Pistons and Lakers vs. Thunder.
Continue below for our NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Tuesday's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions: Tuesday, May 5
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Prop Bet
If Jaylon Tyson is going to be the primary defender on Cade Cunningham, Cade is likely going to have more opportunities to pass than he will to score, and Duncan Robinson should be the direct beneficiary of that gravity.
The Cavs' defense was sneakily generous during the regular season, allowing a high volume of threes per 100 possessions. Plus, let's be honest: Duncan is really the only shooter on this Pistons roster you can trust. The onus is on him to bend the defense from everywhere—the wings, the corners, the top of the key—especially with Cade operating from the center of the floor.
If you look at the closeout Game 7, Duncan went just 2-for-10, but I actually love seeing the 10 attempts. That volume is something that has continually happened; he had nine attempts in Game 6 and his floor was basically six. He cleared this 2.5 mark in five of the games in that last series despite shooting only 36.5%, which is a relatively low percentage for him.
Robinson should get much cleaner looks throughout this series as Cade gets into the lane and kicks out. Detroit needs Duncan to fire at a rapid rate. If he gets his usual 7 to 9 attempts, I think he’ll go over 2.5 consistently in this matchup.
Pick: Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers-Made (-120, DraftKings)
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Lakers vs. Thunder Spread Pick
By Matt Moore
Look, if you ask me rationally what the most likely outcome for this series is, it’s a Thunder sweep. I have almost no basketball argument for Los Angeles winning this game outright, but 15.5 points in a second-round series is just wild.
This number opened at 14.5, spiked to 16.5 for a second, and has settled back at 15.5, but I’m still fine taking the points because my model can't get anywhere near this.
I make the spread for this game Thunder -9.75. Even with the assumption that Luka Dončić is out—and I’m basically ruling him out for the duration of this series—I just can’t find a spot where a double-digit spread this large makes sense.
Interestingly, the Lakers actually posted a higher EFG% than Oklahoma City during the regular season. Now, that’s obviously impacted by the games Luka played, but it shows the Lakers have the capacity to score efficiently.
I don't think this is going to be a particularly competitive game; the Thunder might destroy them by 30. However, at this number, I’m basically hoping for a backdoor cover in the 13 or 14-point range.
It’s crazy to see a 4-seed getting this much cushion in the semifinals, so I’ll hold my nose and take the Lakers to keep it semi-respectable late.
Pick: Lakers +15.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Cavaliers vs. Pistons System Pick
By Bet Labs
Our Bet Labs system titled "Low Radar Home Favorites" identifies the Pistons as a prime candidate for Game 1, with the spread (-3.5) sitting squarely within the system's "moderate favorite" threshold.
This strategy capitalizes on a specific postseason psychological trap: when the market sets a narrow line, it suggests to the betting public that the Cavaliers are the functional equals of the Pistons.
This perceived parity leads to balanced action across the board, which suppresses the spread and prevents it from reaching its "true" value, effectively masking the substantial edge Detroit gains from playing at Little Caesars Arena.
In Game 1 of a playoff series, the home-court advantage is a measurable force that extends beyond crowd noise—it involves a tangible comfort with shooting backdrops and a beneficial officiating whistle that historically favors a disciplined home favorite.
Because the Pistons do not carry the massive public bias as some of the teams that have enormous fanbases on the coasts (Lakers, Knicks, etc.), their line remains efficient rather than inflated. This allows the system to capture Detroit in an undervalued position where high-energy and familiarity under pressure can provide the necessary separation to cover.
By leaning into this market hesitation, the approach bets on the reality that home-court stability in the playoffs consistently outpaces the public’s perception of parity.
Pick: Pistons -3.5 (-102, DraftKings)
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Lakers vs. Thunder Player Prop
By Matt Moore
The Lakers are going to give Marcus Smart the primary defensive assignment on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and we know exactly how that goes—SGA is going to put him in foul trouble early.
It’s going to be a whole frustrating storyline for the Lakers and the refs, but the bottom line is, it will take a toll on Smart's minutes and rhythm.
Even if he manages to stay on the floor, Smart's role has fundamentally shifted. Look at the data from that Rockets series: when Austin Reaves was out, Smart was a usage monster, clearing this number in five straight games with lines of 23, 32, and 31. But the moment Reaves came back? Under (13 and 8). He just doesn’t get the ball when Austin is out there.
The Lakers’ system is still built for ISO-heavy, heliocentric basketball. With Reaves back, he’s the "Luka-lite" playmaker alongside LeBron James. So, Smart is relegated to being a spot-up weapon who isn't a deadeye shooter. He won’t get the downhill looks or the pick-and-roll opportunities he feasted on last round.
Pick: Marcus Smart Under 13.5 Points & Assists (-120, bet365)
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