The 2026 NBA Playoffs delivered a first round full of chaos. The Boston Celtics were upset by a seventh-seeded Philadelphia team, a short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves side knocked out Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, and Oklahoma City swept the Phoenix Suns without breaking a sweat.
Now, with the Conference Semifinals underway and real money flowing, Polymarket's odds have shifted dramatically, and the updated picture is sharper than ever.
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Polymarket's "NBA Playoffs: Team to Advance to Conference Finals" Market At-A-Glance
The Western Conference: A Two-Horse Race
Oklahoma City Thunder — 94% (+15% since open)
If it wasn't already clear, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the most heavily traded team with over $40,000 in volume, and the market has never been more convinced. At 94%, the Thunder are essentially a lock in the eyes of traders, and a "Yes" share will only net you 5 cents on the dollar at this point. The Thunder swept Phoenix in Round 1 and now face the Los Angeles Lakers, who are priced at just 6% to advance.
San Antonio Spurs — 86% (+16% since open)
Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs have seen a 16-point surge in their Conference Finals probability, which sits at 86% with $14,624 in volume. San Antonio handled Portland in Round 1 and is heavily favored against Minnesota. The market is pricing this as nearly a formality, and only a Timberwolves miracle run would prove traders wrong. However, at 14%, the market gives Minnesota just enough respect to acknowledge the possibility.
Minnesota Timberwolves — 14%
Minnesota's $15,083 in trading volume is among the most on the board, suggesting there's genuine interest in speculating on the upset. The Timberwolves upset Denver in Round 1 and have clearly kept traders engaged, but at 14%, the market still firmly expects the Spurs to move on.
Los Angeles Lakers — 6%
The Los Angeles Lakers advanced past Houston, but have been firmly rejected by the market in Round 2. With Oklahoma City at 94%, there is almost no scenario in which the market sees LeBron James and company punching through to the Western Conference Finals. At $28,702 in volume, the most of any team in this market, traders have been very active in fading the Lakers.
The Eastern Conference: New York's to Lose
New York Knicks — 71% (+36% since open)
The biggest mover on the board. The New York Knicks have surged 36 percentage points since the market opened, and are now sitting at 71% to reach the Conference Finals. That kind of move signals that their series against Philadelphia is expected to go decisively in New York's favor. With only $233 in volume, this market may still be thinly traded, but the directional signal is loud. New York is the East's new frontrunner.
Detroit Pistons — 52% (+24% since open)
The Pistons, the No. 1 seed in the East, survived a grueling seven-game series against Orlando and now face Cleveland in the semis. At 52%, the market sees this as essentially a coin flip, which, given that the Cavaliers are priced at 47%, is exactly what it is. Detroit's 24-point surge suggests people are buying in, but the market isn't ready to hand them a ticket to the Conference Finals just yet.
Cleveland Cavaliers — 47%
Cleveland and Detroit are mirror images on this market, a genuine 50/50 battle by the numbers. Donovan Mitchell's Cavaliers came back to beat Toronto in seven and are giving Detroit everything they can handle. At 47%, the Cavs are essentially tied in the market's estimation, making this the most uncertain series of the second round.
Philadelphia 76ers — 31%
Philadelphia's shocking upset of Boston gave it plenty of momentum and $1,809 in trading volume, the most of any Eastern Conference team outside of Detroit. But at 31%, the market still expects the Knicks to advance. The 76ers are a live underdog, not a long shot, which makes this one of the more interesting value propositions left on the board for traders who think New York is overpriced after its 36-point surge.
The Bigger Picture
What this market reveals most clearly is just how much perceptions have changed since the playoffs began.
The West looks increasingly like a two-team race, and the East is far more volatile, with a coin-flip series between Detroit and Cleveland running alongside a resurgent Knicks squad that the market now heavily favors.
With the Conference Finals market closing May 24th, there's still time for the numbers to move. But right now, the crowd has spoken: Oklahoma City and San Antonio in the West, New York in the East, and Detroit hanging on by a thread.
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