The Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers meet in the Western Conference Semifinals. Our experts Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson break down where value can be found in this series, the absence of Luka Doncic, and why the Lakers are staring into the abyss.
Let's get into our Thunder vs Lakers series preview for the second round of the NBA playoffs.
Thunder vs Lakers Series Odds
Series Winner Odds: Thunder -1600, Lakers +900
Series Spread: Thunder -2.5 games (-320), Lakers +2.5 games (+250)
Total Games: Over/Under 5.5 games (+220o /-275u)
Odds provided by DraftKings.
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Thunder vs Lakers NBA Playoff Series Preview, Predictions
The Series Outlook
Matt Moore: The poor Los Angeles Lakers, after an inspiring win over the Rockets, now face the reigning champion and one-seed Oklahoma City Thunder.
At DraftKings, the Thunder are -1600 to win this series. The books don't want anything at all on OKC. My 10 words for this series: I don't know what to do here. Please help me.
Brandon Anderson: I spent six hours trying to find value. My ten words: Had to get SO creative to find bets. Thunder roll.
Thunder vs. Lakers Series Picks
Brandon Anderson: SGA Series Points Leader (-550, FanDuel)
This is my version of "if you saw $10 on the ground, would you pick it up?" Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is implied at 85% to lead this series in scoring.
With Jalen Williams out, Shai's scoring burden actually goes up. He’s played seven previous series in his career and led the series in points in all seven. He’s led by an average of 29 points per series. This is essentially a bet on his health.
Brandon Anderson: Number of 2nd Round Sweeps — At Least One (52%, Kalshi)
I make the probability of a sweep in this series, or the Knicks/Spurs series, closer to 75% combined. You’re getting a coin flip on a market where I think three series have a real shot at a sweep.
The Thunder are 19-0 when their opponent scores under 100 points, and the Lakers averaged only 96.3 against them in the regular season.
Matt Moore: Western Conference Finals MVP — SGA (-120)
I can’t find value on the series price at -1600, but I make the Thunder 97% to win this series.
The best value is betting Shai to be the best player in the next round. If Minnesota wins their series like I expect, Shai's price to win WCF MVP is going to evaporate. Grab it now.
Brandon Anderson: SGA 7+ Assists Every Game (+600, theScore Bet)
Since the start of last postseason, the Thunder have 20 wins. Shai has had 7+ assists in 14 of those (70%).
If you think this is a short series—a sweep or five games—this is a creative way to get +600 on a 70% hit rate in wins. He just did this against the Suns and went 3-for-3 against the Lakers this year.
When the Thunder Have the Ball
The Lakers defense is in trouble. We forget how bad they are because they just played Houston, but they rank 28th in 2-point percentage defense. The Thunder are a top-five unit in that category. This is a matchup of the #4 EFG% offense against the #23 EFG% defense.
In the season series, the Thunder posted a 60% EFG% compared to 50% for the Lakers. That is a massive gulf. Who guards Shai? Marcus Smart? He’s good at selling calls, but Shai is clockwork. Austin Reaves and Luke Kennard are going to get cooked in space.
When the Lakers Have the Ball
This is where the series ends. The Lakers cannot shoot threes (bottom quartile), and they want to live on 2-pointers where they lead the league at 60%. The problem? The Thunder allow the fewest 2-point makes in the league (49%).
The Lakers' turnover problem is a "landslide" waiting to happen. They turned it over 18 times a game against the Rockets. Now they face the league's best turnover-generating team. Every mistake is two points the other way.
The Lakers are 1-10 straight up this season when scoring under 100 points; the Thunder are 19-0 when holding opponents under 100.
The Player Hierarchy
Brandon Anderson: OKC has the top two players and five of the top seven.
SGA (Tier 1 – Gap)
Chet Holmgren / LeBron James (Tier 2)
Reaves / iHart / Caruso / Cason Wallace (Tier 3)
Matt Moore: LeBron can be the second-best player on the court on any given night, but there is no scenario where he is the best player. Shai is too consistent.
LeBron is posting a career-low in points, rebounds, and usage. His 106 offensive rating in round one isn't "Playoff LeBron." He’s a wily veteran now, but he can't win a game by himself anymore against a defense this great.
Game 1 Best Bet
Brandon Anderson: Thunder First Half ATS. Going from Houston to OKC is a massive shock to the system. The Thunder are #1 in the league at home by net rating and #2 in 1st half net rating. The Lakers' road 1st half net rating ranked 19th—the worst of any playoff team.
The Lakers are not a comeback team; they are 40-2 when leading at half and 14-28 when trailing. OKC gets out early and stays there.
