NBA Finals Player Prop Bets and Picks: Back Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder to Bounce Back in Game 1 (Wednesday, Sept. 30)
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jae Crowder #99 and Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat.
- The Heat's success in the Bubble has been due in large part their role players — especially the 3-point shooters.
- Raheem Palmer is expecting that trend to continue in Game 1 with Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder and Duncan Robinson.
- See how he's betting their player props to open this NBA Finals series.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Bet Quality Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Odds as of Wednesday at 9 a.m. ET.
Wednesday’s player props come from Game 1 of the NBA Finals:
- Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers at 9 p.m. ET
NBA Finals Player Prop Bets
Miami Heat, Tyler Herro
The Prop: Over 15.5 Points (-103) [PointsBet]
Herro shot just 3-of-12 for seven points in 24 minutes against the Lakers in December. If there’s one thing Herro has shown throughout his extended rookie season, it’s that he doesn’t lack for confidence. Given the growth we’ve seen from Herro throughout the NBA restart, I expect a bounce back performance from him.
Herro is averaging 33 minutes per game and is now the Heat’s fourth leading scorer throughout these playoffs at 16.5 points per game. The Lakers haven’t been great at defending guards all year, thus I like the over 15.5 points which has a bet quality of nine out of 10.
Miami Heat, Jae Crowder
The Prop: Over 2.5 Made Threes (-106) [FanDuel]
Crowder is leading the Heat in shot attempts from behind the arc with a whopping 8.1 per game. On a team with Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Herro and Duncan Robinson, you can’t take away everything.
Crowder is the lesser of these evils and the beneficiary of the weapons around him. After shooting 22-of-51 (43.4%) from 3-point range against the Bucks in Round 2, he shot just 12-of-47 (25.5%) from deep in the Eastern Conference finals, per NBA Advanced Stats. He’s clearly not as great as he showed against the Bucks, but he’s also not as bad as he looked against the Boston Celtics either.
I’m betting on regression to the mean and even if it doesn’t come, his 3-point volume means this proposition is mispriced. Despite shooting poorly against the Celtics, he still made 2.8 3s per game. Imagine if he could just shoot a normal percentage.
Miami Heat, Duncan Robinson
The Prop: Over 11.5 points (-106) [FanDuel]
If you haven’t noticed, Heat team totals have gone over the entire Eastern Conference finals. As we continue to ride this trend, betting overs for individual Heat players has value.
Robinson is an elite shooter capable of punishing defenses for leaving him with any space and he’s coming off a series against the Celtics in which he shot 40.8% from behind the arc on eight attempts per game.
Our FantasyLab projections have him at 13.5, making the over 11.5 points a positive expected value proposition. The bet quality on this one is a nine out of 10 — take the over.