Wednesday NBA Odds & Betting Picks: Our Best Bets for Clippers vs. Cavaliers, Celtics vs. Kings (Feb. 3)
David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Cavaliers guard Darius Garland
- There is plenty of NBA action taking place Wednesday around the country.
- Our experts have two value picks they're featruing on the 10-game card.
- Check out their plays, which includes a moneyline pick in the Celtics-Kings game, below.
We have another loaded NBA lineup scheduled around the country Wednesday, with 10 games on the card.
Our NBA experts have their sights set on two contests this evening, with the first angle coming via a prop play in a matchup between Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers.
The second takes place on the west coast, featuring a moneyline wager in the showdown between the Boston Celtics and Sacramento Kings.
You can find their analysis and selections below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Clippers vs. Cavaliers
Brandon Anderson: I swear Darius Garland is breaking out. He also owes me money at this point, so I’m going to need to see him to show up.
I’ve bet a Garland over prop twice this season. The first time I did it, he looked like a sophomore breakout five games into the season. He was averaging 19.0 points and 7.4 assists a game, displaying the appearance of a franchise player, so I bet a Garland over and recommended him in our daily props column.
Garland then rolled his ankle that night and shot 3 of 14 from the field. The prop stayed under and he wound up missing three weeks.
He returned to the lineup January 22 and had three relatively quiet games as his minutes ramped up. Now that he’s returned to full-starter time over the last four games, Garland is back to 18.5 points and 5.3 assists per game.
Emboldened by his return, I went back to the well Friday and played his assists over the total and he had just one in the game. Instead, Garland poured in a career-high 24 points.
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Needless to say, I’m now 0-2 on Garland overs, but they say third time’s the charm.
Garland has now had more than 4.5 assists in nine of 13 games this season. One of those unders was that game he got hurt in. Another was that 24-point, career-high game. The third came in his first game back from the injury in which he played 22 minutes.
When Garland plays at least 25 minutes this season, he’s gone over 4.5 assists 72.7% of the time.
Garland should get plenty of minutes tonight against the Clippers, and I still think this line is a full assist too low. We’re projecting Garland at 5.9 assists against Los Angeles, so I’m giving Garland another chance here and playing the over once again up to -155 odds.
Celtics vs. Kings
Kenny Ducey: So, our first check on the Boston Celtics without Marcus Smart. They had a 108.1 Defensive Rating against Golden State — not too bad — and they had one of their stronger offensive outputs of the past couple weeks with 114.4 points scored per 100 possessions.
Boston proved a lot in its win over Golden State on Tuesday, taking some body blows and managing to pull away and even cover when it was all said and done.
We have yet another profitable spot with the Celtics tonight on the second game of a back-to-back. Not only are the Celtics 3-0 against the spread this year with no rest — winning all three games and covering by an average of 14.2 points per game — they’ve also been beasts in this spot historically under head coach Brad Stevens.
Since Stevens came to town in 2013, the Celtics are 67-45-2 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back, a cover rate of 59.8 percent.
After playing some of the league’s top defenses over the past eight games in the Warriors, Lakers, Cavaliers, 76ers and Knicks, the Celtics will be relieved to see the Kings on the other end of the floor in this contest.
Sacramento owns the league’s worst-rated defense, with an unsightly 117.6 points allowed per 100 possessions, something many of us in the betting community have exploited time and time again this year. The Kings have particularly struggled against the three as well, allowing opponents to cash in 39.2% of the time from deep.
Boston has begun to get hot from three lately, ranking fourth in the NBA over its past six games with a 40.7% three-point percentage, and the Celtics should be able to thrive once again from distance here.
Another thing that was encouraging against the Warriors was the Celtics’ domination on the glass. And while the effort came against a team down their starting and backup centers, it was still impressive to watch.
Boston’s been competitive with just about everyone when it comes to rebounding, so there’s no reason to believe it can’t win that battle against Richaun Holmes and Sacramento.
With a fantastic matchup versus a wilting defense, along with a strong trend in our favor, I love backing the Celtics as short road favorites here.