Hawks vs. Mavericks Odds & Picks: Target the Total as Dallas Looks to Beat Atlanta Again
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic.
- The Mavericks look to win a second game of the season over Atlanta on Wednesday night.
- Both teams had one of their best shooting performances of the season last week in their first meeting.
- Joe Dellera explains why that puts value on the game total in Dallas.
Hawks vs. Mavericks Odds
|Moneyline||+138 / -165|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings.|
The Atlanta Hawks look to even the season series against the Dallas Mavericks, who snapped their six-game losing streak against the Hawks exactly one week ago in Atlanta.
Should we expect a similar result, or do the Hawks have a path to victory?
The Hawks now know that De’Andre Hunter will miss multiple weeks with an injury to his right meniscus, and they will also be without Rajon Rondo (back) against Dallas. It’s possible Brandon Goodwin enters the rotation as the backup point guard without Rondo.
The Hawks have slipped a bit over the past two weeks. They’re owners of a -3.2 point differential per 100 possessions during that stretch, which is a sharp departure from their season long mark of +2.0, per Cleaning the Glass.
The reason for the decrease is Atlanta’s defense that has crumbled. This could be attributed to the loss of Hunter, who was the Hawks’ best wing defender and had a defensive +/- of -8.8.
The Hawks had started the season strong defensively and had even weathered the storm without Bogdan Bogdanovic, but now with the loss of Hunter, it’s proving to be too much. Hunter and Bogdanovic are two of the Hawks’ better wing defenders, and their absences have now had a compounding effect that Atlanta cannot make up for defensively.
The Mavericks look to repeat their performance from a week ago, when they forced their way to the charity stripe.
One of the issues with the Mavericks this year is they have struggled shooting 3-pointers, despite shooting the eighth most per game, according to NBA Advanced Stats, entering play on Tuesday. Even in their last matchup, the Mavericks were unable to take advantage of Hunter’s absence and shot just 32.5% from deep.
What was encouraging last week was Luka Doncic had no one that could stop him and he led the Mavericks to a 27/8/14 line. Without Hunter, the Hawks have no one that can guard Doncic properly, which means he will have plenty of opportunities to duplicate that performance.
The Mavericks are playing well since these teams’ matchup a week ago, while the Hawks have not played since Saturday’s win over the Raptors.
The Mavericks have the advantage from a personnel standpoint. Doncic should pick up where he left off against Atlanta and control the floor, while Porzingis will look to continue his strong play over the past week.
While I lean the Mavericks, I’m looking to the total for value.
This season these teams are a combined 29-19 to the under, per BetLabs. The Hawks are actually 8-2 to the under when they are on the road, as well.
When these two teams played last week, they both shot at or above their season average from the floor. In fact, both the Hawks and the Mavericks’ best shooting percentage came from long midrange shots, which is a shot they make often, but over 70% for both of these teams from long midrange is well above their season long averages of 46.9% and 48.6%.
This total is now 10 points higher than it closed just a week ago and even though these teams combined for 238 points and the over, those points were built on above average shooting. Considering the way these two teams scored, I think this is an overcorrection by the market, and there’s value on the under.
Pick: Under 233.5