Warriors vs. Lakers NBA Odds & Picks: Can Golden State Get It Done on the Road? (February 28)

Warriors vs. Lakers NBA Odds & Picks: Can Golden State Get It Done on the Road? (February 28) article feature image
Credit:

David Dow/Getty Images. Pictured: Draymond Green (23) Stephen Curry (30) of Golden State.

  • The Warriors are winners of three straight and hit the road to play the Lakers on Sunday night.
  • Los Angeles has struggled mightily without Anthony Davis but secured a win on Friday with the return of Dennis Schroder.
  • Joe Dellera thinks there's a lot of value in a healthy Golden State team to pull the upset.

Warriors vs. Lakers Odds

Warriors Odds +3.5 
Lakers Odds -3.5 
Moneyline +140 / -165 
Over/Under 224.5 
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds as of Saturday night and via BetMGM.

The Warriors take on the Lakers in a prime time matchup at the Staples Center. Golden State has now won three straight and looks to take advantage of the absence of Anthony Davis, but the Lakers look a bit renewed on the offensive side of the ball now that Dennis Schroder has returned from health and safety protocols.

Let’s break down the last game on the NBA’s Sunday slate.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have played well this season when Stephen Curry and Draymond Green share the court, and their offense and defense takes a significant step forward when they are on the floor.

The Warriors have had to navigate some injuries, and it’s given us the opportunity to examine their best lineups. Rookie James Wiseman has had a bit of a learning curve, and he rightfully belongs coming off the bench. This allows the Warriors to start a lineup of Curry, Kelly Oubre, Andrew Wiggins, Green and Kevon Looney, which is one of the best lineups in terms of point differential in the entire NBA.

Per Cleaning the Glass, this lineup is the second best lineup with at least 200 possessions in the league with a +21.8 point differential. They are fantastic on both sides of the court and bury 3’s on offense while limiting opponents to just 31.3% shooting from 3-point range.

The Warriors have rolled out this starting lineup in their last three games, and have won each of those first quarters by an average margin of 5.3 points. The Warriors will work to secure a strong start on the road.


Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have truly struggled without Anthony Davis and finally secured a win when Dennis Schroder returned against the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. They’re continuing to list LeBron James as probable, but he’s yet to miss a game this season and is fully expected to play.

The Lakers desperately needed Dennis Schroder to return and take some of the playmaking responsibilities when LeBron is off the floor. In all minutes that LeBron is off the floor, the Lakers are -6.4 points per 100 possessions and score just 107.2 points per 100 in those minutes. When Schroder is on the floor and LeBron is off, the Lakers still are a negative, but they at least score 109.7 points per 100.

What has been interesting is although Anthony Davis is an elite defender, and the Lakers miss him in their rotations, their defensive points allowed is exactly the same for the season overall when he has been off the floor (106.8 – 90th percentile). The Lakers team defense has been able to keep them in games, even when their offense has faltered.

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Warriors-Lakers Pick

The Lakers and Warriors are both elite defensive teams this year — the Lakers are No.  1 and the Warriors are No. 7. They both limit their opponents to two of the four lowest eFG% allowed in the league and force their opponents into tough shots. This game should be a defensive battle.

Considering the Lakers struggles without Anthony Davis, the Warriors are undervalued in this matchup. Without AD, the Lakers are not as equipped to take advantage of the Warriors’ poor rebounding, and this gives the Warriors an edge.

I think the Warriors are undervalued in this matchup after the Lakers finally looked a bit like themselves in defeating the Blazers, and I’m looking to back the road dog. Additionally, if the Warriors confirm a starting lineup of Curry, Oubre, Wiggins, Green and Looney, I will play the Warriors 1st Quarter Moneyline against a Lakers team who has lost 4 of their last 5 1st Quarters.

Pick: Warriors +4

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