Suns vs. Warriors NBA Odds & Picks: Fade Curry & Golden State on Back-to-Back (May 11)

Suns vs. Warriors Odds

The NBA play-in tournament begins a week from Tuesday. As we enter the final week of the regular season, we have an exciting game on Tuesday evening featuring the No. 2 seed Phoenix Suns as they visit the Bay Area to take on the No. 8 seed Golden State Warriors.

If the season ended today, the Warriors would face the Lakers in the play-in tournament, and the winner of that game would face the Suns in the first round of the playoffs.

Chris Paul and Steph Curry have had their share of battles over the years. Including the many playoff games, these two will be facing off against each other for the 60th time in their NBA careers.

This should make for an exciting night with two future Hall-of-Famers duking it out and playoff seeding still potentially on the line.  Which team will prevail? Let's examine below.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns' offense is a well-oiled machine with Paul running the show. Since the All-Star break, they have ranked second in the league in offensive rating (117.2), second in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.14) and third in effective field goal percentage (56.6%), per NBA Advanced Stats.

On the flip side, their defensive rating (112.1) has slipped to 18th in the league in that same time span.

Phoenix has been able to rely on its offense to lead it to the top of the West. This may not prove to be too much of a hindrance against an inept offensive team such as the Warriors. If Curry is not bombing 3-pointers, I don't see the Golden State having much of a chance to keep up with the Suns' offense.

As mentioned above, this will be the 60th time these two players face off. For the record, Paul's teams (Pelicans, Clippers, Rockets, Thunder, Suns) have been 22-27 (44.9%) straight up but have had a 26-22-1 (54.1%) ATS record.

Dating back to Dec. 7, 2016, in the last eight regular-season games that Curry and Paul have faced each other, Curry has averaged only 23.5 points per game while shooting only 43% from the field, per the SDQL. Paul usually brings his "A" game on defense to face Curry.

When elite teams (defined as teams with a win percentage greater than .600) off a loss face off against a team with no rest, they have gone 79-52-2 (60.3%) ATS since the 2017-18 season, per the SDQL. This is active with the Suns, as they look to avenge their loss to the Lakers against the fatigued Warriors.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors' season has been nothing special. Rookie James Wiseman had his season ended early with a torn ACL, Klay Thompson missed his second season in a row and a season of mediocrity has raised questions about Steve Kerr as a coach.

Yet, here they are on the verge of making the play-in tournament, thanks to Curry carrying the team on his shoulders. He is averaging 31.9 points per game and is close to adding another scoring title to his resume.

After an impressive win over the Jazz on Monday evening, the Warriors will finish the final three games of the season at home against the Suns, Pelicans and Grizzlies. At this point, it's a strong possibility the Warriors will face the Lakers in the play-in tournament, which would be a gift for all NBA fans.

The Warriors' defense has really impressed this season. Going into Thursday's games, they rank fifth in defensive rating (109.2) and third in opponents' effective field goal percentage (52.1%) in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats. Draymond Green is undoubtedly the anchor behind this defensive unit, but Andrew Wiggins has really stepped up this season, using his length to wreak havoc on his defensive assignment.

On the other hand, their offense has not been up to par, ranking only 23rd in offensive rating (115.9) for the season. If Curry isn't scoring, there's little offense that gets generated outside of Wiggins. Kelly Oubre is out with a wrist injury, so they will really have to count on Curry to have a big game to get past the tough Suns. The Warriors have not fared well as an underdog this season, going 16-23 (41.0%) ATS, per the SDQL database.

Home underdogs with no rest off a win as a home underdog have gone 14-35 (28.6%) ATS in the history of the SDQL database, dating back to the 1995-96 season. This is active on the Warriors. Teams in this situation expended all of their energy overcoming odds the night before and struggle the following game. I don't expect the Warriors to pull an upset two nights in a row against the league's best teams.

Suns-Warriors Pick

My recommendation is to side with the impressive Suns on Tuesday evening.

Their offense has been incredible, and they will be looking to avenge a loss against the Lakers on Sunday night. They will give their best effort to catch up to the Jazz to overtake the No. 1 seed and avoid a potential first-round matchup against the Lakers.

Paul should continue to bring his best against Curry, who does not have many reinforcements to help overcome the Suns. I expect the Warriors to be a little flat after their upset of the Jazz the evening before and now on the second game of a back-to-back.

With all the factors I mention above, I make the line on this game Suns -7 and therefore see an edge at the current line of -5 and would play it up to -6.5.

Pick: Suns -5 (Play to -6.5).

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