The second round of the NBA playoffs resumes with a pair of pivotal Game 2s today—Wednesday, May 6. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified a total of four best bets for tonight's games—including picks for 76ers vs. Knicks and Timberwolves vs. Spurs.
Continue below for our NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Wednesday's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions: Wednesday, May 6
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
76ers vs. Knicks First Quarter & First Half Spread Picks
By Matt Moore
I’m taking the 76ers to cover the spread in the first half and first quarter. I’m a little skittish about the moneyline here, but at these tight numbers, you might as well get greedy for the ROI.
Here's the situational trend I'm targeting: in Game 2, road 'dogs coming off a loss of 19 or more in the opener are a combined 22-10-2 ATS (69%) in the first quarter and 21-12-1 ATS (64%) in the first half.
The Sixers played about as poorly as humanly possible in Game 1, which fits the Nick Nurse pattern. We saw it against Boston, and we saw it back in Toronto—Nurse isn’t always great in series openers, but he’s elite at making the tactical adjustments for Game 2. I expect him to have a much better script ready to go for the first 24 minutes of Game 2 to keep them competitive.
What’s fascinating is that this bounce-back trend disappears after halftime. Those same road 'dogs are just 48% ATS for the full game and a dismal 22% straight up.
This isn’t necessarily about Philly winning the game; it’s about them punching back early. The trends suggest the second half is actually a good Knicks spot, so I’m strictly targeting the early windows here.
Picks: 76ers First Quarter Spread +2.5 (-120), 76ers First Half Spread +3.5 (-105)
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spread Prediction
I’m backing the Spurs -9.5 and we are playing the escalators. This is a spot play: Home Game 2, down 0–1 after being a favorite of 7 points or more in the opener. Historically, teams in this exact position are 26–12 ATS (68%), covering by an average of six points a game.
We all thought San Antonio was the better team coming in, and after a shocking Game 1 loss, this is the ultimate bounce-back spot.
In the playoffs, once you’ve won by 10, you might as well win by 20. In Round 1 alone, we saw 15 wins by 16 or more points.
Anthony Edwards clearly isn't 100% healthy, and if the Wolves fall behind by 18, they aren't throwing him out there in the fourth quarter—they’ll just pack it up and move to Game 3.
We’re getting aggressive because 37% of the Spurs' wins this year were by 15+, and 21% were by 20+. If we’re right about the bounce-back, let’s be really right. Here is the escalator:
- -14.5 (+178 at DraftKings)
- -19.5 (+400 at bet365)
- -29.5 (+950 at bet365)
If the Wolves' shots aren't falling and the Spurs pull away, Minnesota will run away and hide—and help us cash the top of the escalator.
Pick: Spurs -9.5 (-115)
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76ers vs. Knicks Prop Bet
I’m running it back with Josh Hart Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists. The market already moved this line up from Game 1, but it’s still too low.
In the opener, Hart put up 8 rebounds and 6 assists in just 26 minutes. He didn't even play the fourth quarter because of the blowout—he was legitimately on pace for a triple-double.
I'm looking at the "invisible" stats: potential assists and rebound chances. Hart was second on the floor with 7 potential assists and 12 rebound chances. He led Game 1 in assists and he's only one off from the fake rebounds leader, Ariel Hukporti.
The regular-season data backs this up, too. Hart averaged over 17 RA per game against Philly this season. Even with the line move and the heavy juice, we’re still catching value. I project this line in the 15 or 16 range.
I’m not playing any escalators on this one tonight because the alternate lines have sharpened, but the baseline is still a smash. Grab it before the market catches up to how much Hart owns this matchup.
Pick: Josh Hart Over 13.5 Rebounds & Assists (-130)
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Prop Pick
By Matt Moore
I’m taking Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made because the kid is in a serious rhythm right now. If you look back at his last 30 games, he’s cleared this number 53% of the time.
But more importantly, check the playoff log: since the postseason started, his three-point makes have gone 2, 3, 3, 2, and 3. That is five straight playoff games covering this line.
The fundamental shift here is the offensive hierarchy. With De'Aaron Fox serving as the primary initiator, Castle has transitioned into a "spot-up weapon mode." He’s no longer tasked with the heavy lifting of creation; his job is simple—wait for the ball to find him, shoot if he's open, or drive if he’s not.
I really like the way his shot looks right now. He clearly looks like a player in rhythm.
Honestly, I’m not even that impacted by his season-long percentages. This handicap is about opportunity and current form. When you’re getting a guy who has cleared this in five straight games at a plus-money price (+130, FanDuel), you have to take that.
The opportunities will be there as the Wolves' defense collapses on Fox, leaving Castle to feast as a secondary weapon.
Pick: Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
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