The NBA Playoffs resume with a trio of crucial Game 5s today — Tuesday, April 28.
Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified best bets for all three of today's matchups — including picks for 76ers vs. Celtics, Hawks vs. Knicks, and Trail Blazers vs. Spurs.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks and predictions for tonight's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions Today: Tuesday, April 28
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
76ers vs. Celtics Spread Pick
My case for this play is strictly about the Celtics' tendency to show up unfocused after a massive win. It’s the same narrative we’ve been fading in the playoffs for years. I know people want to say this is a different team, but we already saw this trend come to fruition once this postseason in Game 2.
Since the start of the 2020 playoffs, when Boston wins by more than 10 points, they are a dismal 11-24-1 against the spread. That is a 31% cover rate, failing by an average of 5.5 points per game. Even more concerning? They have now failed to cover in this exact spot 10 straight times. They haven’t just failed to cover lately; they’ve lost the last four of these games outright.
We saw the blueprint in Game 2. Boston cruised in the opener, everyone wrote the series off, and the Celtics showed up fat and happy for the sequel. They missed shots, sure, but more importantly, they lacked defensive pressure and let Philadelphia get comfortable. When you don't pressure this Sixers team, they’re going to hit shots, and that’s exactly what happened.
To be clear, this is a one-star play. I’m not suddenly in love with Philadelphia or looking for reasons to invest in the Sixers' long-term outlook. This is purely a play on a consistent, data-backed trend of Boston playing down to the competition after a blowout. I’ll take the points with Philly in Game 5 tonight.
Pick: 76ers +11.5 (-110)
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Hawks vs. Knicks Prop Bet
To be honest, I should have been more aggressive in betting this from the jump, because it’s becoming increasingly clear: this just is not a Jalen Johnson series. He’s gone under this number in three of the first four games, and he simply doesn’t look comfortable out there.
The matchups against the Knicks' forward rotation—specifically OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns—have been a nightmare for him. They are physical, they are disciplined, and they have pushed him out of his preferred spots all series long.
When you look at the offensive flow for Atlanta, they are running so much through CJ McCollum right now that there just isn't enough usage left over for Jalen to consistently threaten a total this high.
If you track his output versus this 26.5 line so far, the trend is telling: he finished with 26 in Game 1 (missing by the hook), 20 in Game 2, jumped to 32 in a Game 3 outlier, and then plummeted back to 19 in the last outing. Outside of the one game he popped off, his production has been on a steady decline.
It’s not that Jalen isn't a high-level player—he is—but this specific matchup is just a fade-spot for me. If you think the Hawks find a way to win this game, you probably lean toward the over. But I expect New York to dominate the physicality again.
I will also be pairing these together for a correlated play: Knicks Moneyline + Jalen Johnson Under 26.5 PA.
Pick: Jalen Johnson Under 26.5 Points & Assists (-105)
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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Spread Pick
By Matt Moore
The historical data for home favorites on the verge of advancing is fascinating. Since 2003, teams up 3-1 playing Game 5 at home are a dominant 80-20 straight up. An 80% win rate is elite, and you expect the better team to take care of business at home.
But—and there is always a "but" when it comes to how the market priced these games—they are oddly only 46-52-2 against the spread. When you narrow that down to heavy favorites of more than 10 points, the cover rate craters to 39% (10-16-1 ATS). They win even more often in those spots, but they don't cover.
My theory here is that the 3-1 series lead exacerbates the spread. It doesn't actually represent how competitive the series has been; it just reflects the win-loss column.
Usually, if a team is down 3-1, they’ve snagged a game and probably lost another on a high-variance, coin-flip clutch sequence. The number gets inflated, but the gap between the teams hasn't actually widened that much.
Portland is going to throw the kitchen sink at San Antonio tonight because their entire season is on the line. There’s also the emotional factor: this is likely the last game for Tiago Splitter. The players clearly love him and he’s done a great job, but the new owner is a bit of a loon and a cheapskate, so he’s likely gone.
I like the "Spurs win, Blazers cover" middle-ground here too. Portland fights to the end, even if they can't pull the upset.
Pick: Trail Blazers +12.5 (-110)
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