NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Plays for Saturday, Including Jrue Holiday & Doug McDermott (Mar 13)
The All-Star Break has essentially reset the NBA season for many teams, with the week off allowing them to shuffle rosters and playing time around. That’s especially true for some teams with players returning from injuries after that extra week away.
All those shifting minutes and roles mean opportunity for us in the props markets, and we’re playing that change in opportunity tonight for all three of our picks.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the book with the best odds on each prop.
NBA Player Props & Picks
DeAndre’ Bembry, under 16.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
|Raptors at Hornets||+2.5|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
The poor Toronto Raptors continue to be insanely shorthanded. The Raps are still missing Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby from the starting lineup, and that has Toronto playing all sorts of guys in new roles.
DeAndre’ Bembry is one of those guys getting bigger minutes. Bembry has started six of the past nine games for Toronto, but his production has not exactly been eye-popping. If anything, it’s shown that Bembry is not built for this starting role.
In 27 minutes per game as a starter, Bembry is averaging just 6.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. He’s hit only two 3-pointers during those six games and posted pretty rough advanced statistics: under 52% True Shooting and an Offensive Rating of just 91. Still, Bembry is a solid defensive playmaker and Toronto has no other options right now, so Bembry it is.
Bembry should start again tonight, and we project him at 27.5 minutes, but that hasn’t turned into production, and our Props Tool is recommending just about any Bembry under available, at least on offense.
We’ll grab the triple combo prop here and fade Bembry from every angle. Bembry played 37 minutes in Toronto’s first game after the break, and he had nine points, five rebounds, and two assists. That was Bembry’s most productive game as a starter, in huge minutes, and he still went under this line. In fact, he’s gone under it all six times as a starter.
We’re fading Bembry tonight, and we’re fading him hard. I’d play this as high as -150.
Jrue Holiday, under 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
|Bucks at Wizards||-10.5|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
Jrue Holiday missed almost all of February, out 10 games in the health and safety protocols. Holiday returned before the break but didn’t play too much in three games: 18, 18, and 23 minutes.
Holiday’s absence assured he would miss the All-Star Game, so that gave him an extra week away — but even after the break, he played just 25 minutes. Holiday was back in the starting lineup after coming off the bench in those three pre-break games, but it’s clear Milwaukee is still slowly ramping Holiday back up to his usual minutes load with an eye on the long game here.
It helped, of course, that the Bucks blew the Knicks out by 33 in that game, so Holiday didn’t have to play down the stretch. But with the Wizards on the schedule tonight and the Bucks installed as double-digit favorites, this could be another one of those games where Holiday can sit late as Milwaukee coasts to victory.
Holiday’s production has been way down since his return. He’s averaging just 8.0 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in 21.0 minutes per game. We project Jrue at 27.6 minutes tonight, his most since his return, but our Props Tool is still fading Holiday at every angle. The triple combo gives us the most margin of error here since we’re just fading overall minutes and production, and the tool gives us more than a 20% edge in our favor here.
I’ll play this one all the way to -150 and would play comfortably down a number to 25.5 too if needed.
Doug McDermott, over 11.5 points (+102)
|Pacers at Suns||+7|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET|
Doug McDermott has quietly established a really nice role for himself this season in Indiana as the Pacers remain shorthanded on the wing while Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren work their way back.
McDermott has started 15 games for the Pacers, and he’s been quite productive and shown himself to be much more than just a knockdown shooter. McDermott is scoring 13.7 points per game as a starter. He’s attempting almost five 3-pointers a game and making 1.9 per game on 40%, but he’s also reminded us how good he is as a cutter, picking up easy baskets along the way.
Our Props Tool is recommending just about any McDermott over on the board, but I zeroed in his points and 3-pointers. The over 1.5 threes is pretty tempting at +116 considering that’s McDermott’s bread and butter, and he’s gone over that number in nine of his 15 starts, but Phoenix has been one of the league’s best teams defending the perimeter.
I’m sure McDermott will still get his shots up, but I like that the points over gives us credit for those cuts and easy baskets McDermott gets too, plus it’s an easy over if he gets hot and knocks down a handful of threes. He’s gone over 11.5 points in 10 of his 15 starts, hitting this over 67% of the time, and we’re getting plus money here.
I suspect that’s because Caris LeVert is expected to make his return tonight, but I’m not sure that matters a whole lot. Indiana will surely be very cautious with LeVert, and remember, he hasn’t even played for this team yet. I expect him to take some minutes from Edmond Sumner or Aaron Holiday off the bench, but McDermott’s role should remain unchanged for now.
You can play the threes if you like the better juice, but we’re getting plus juice here too and I like McDermott’s chances better at hitting the over. I’ll play to -120.