The Boston Celtics (31-18) and Dallas Mavericks (19-30) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Celtics -7.5), with the over/under set at 222 total points. Boston is a -270 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Celtics vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, February 3.
Celtics vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks
- Celtics vs Mavericks pick: Celtics -7.5 (-110)
My Celtics vs Mavericks best bet is on Boston to cover the spread at -7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Celtics vs Mavericks Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 222 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 222 -110o / -110u | +220 |
Celtics vs Mavericks NBA Preview
The Mavericks been terrific against good teams this season, which makes me uneasy. They are 14-5 against teams with a positive point differential. But I still can’t get to where -7.5 is the right number.
Even though the Mavericks are 12-6 ATS as home underdogs this season, they are only 5-5 as a home 'dog without Anthony Davis. He matters that much for their ability to hang.
The Mavericks are tough and play hard. But the Celtics are the kind of team that doesn’t screw around night-to-night. They are 6-3 as road favorites.
Dallas was a 10.5-point 'dog to the Rockets and I played them in that spot. But the Celtics should honestly be favored by more than Houston, adjusted for homecourt. This needs to be -8.5 or more.
Dallas is a great three-point defensive team, leading the league in opponent rate and third in opponent percentage.
But against the Celtics, three-point shooting is such an ingrained part of their offense, the Mavericks’s scheme can’t manage it.
Dallas has big wings, like Naji Marshall and Cooper Flagg, but without Jayson Tatum, the Celtics are much more built on action-oriented offense in space, which is harder for those wings to make an impact in.
In related news, Joe Mazzulla is 8-2-1 ATS vs. Jason Kidd in his coaching career.
We’re also at the part of the year where players are held back in minutes because of trade concerns. Marshall might be one of these players. PJ Washington is also out with a legit concussion.
Celtics vs Mavericks Predictions, Betting Analysis
The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS without AD and Washington this season. However, the last time they were without both players was against the Knicks, when they were 12.50point favorites in New York.
Even if you give the Mavericks, who have been rough at home, the full allotment of homecourt advantage, I can only get this to -8.5 for a team that has been just as good as the Knicks this season.
I like the Under in this spot as well.
Unders have been profitable the last three weeks overall, but more importantly, Boston’s ability to switch defensively should somewhat limit Flagg, and the Mavs' high-effort, high-size defense should slow down Boston, just not enough.
Pick: Celtics -7.5 (-110)
Spread
My Mavericks vs. Celtics betting prediction is on Boston to cover the spread at -7.5.
Moneyline
I'm targeting the spread instead of the moneyline in this spot.
Over/Under
No play on the total, although I lean toward the Under.
Mavericks vs Celtics Betting Trends
