NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Doncic Headlines Slate (Wednesday, April 6)
Tim Heitman/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic.
It’s the final week of the NBA season and unfortunately, we don’t get one last monster Wednesday night slate since the schedule got moved around a bit this week. We do have five juicy games and some tasty props to play, however, including two New York Knicks and one guy Knicks fans would do just about anything to get their hands on someday.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out six prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Luka Doncic, over 3.5 threes (+140)
|Mavericks vs. Pistons||Mavericks -8.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Doncic and the ‘Mavs have continued to roll since the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Dallas is 15-7 since unloading KP, a robust 56-win pace even without their supposed second star. And, of course, Luka is a huge part of the reason for that success.
In 22 games since Porzingis was traded, Doncic is averaging 32.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game. The assists have been down a bit at times but that’s because the shooting volume has gone up so much in an offense that’s even more heliocentric than ever.
That volume has especially gone up from beyond the arc. Remember when Doncic struggled to hit 3s early in the season? Since the Porzingis trade, Luka has made over 40% of his 3s, and he’s taking 10.1 attempts per game. That’s been good for 4.1 makes per game during that stretch, and it means Doncic has gone over 3.5 3s in 13 of the 22 games, hitting this over 59% of the time.
The floor is really high too. Doncic has at least a trio of 3s in 19 of the 22 games, putting us within one make in almost every game, and we are getting a tasty number here at +140 that’s just too good to pass on. The Pistons allow the fourth most 3s in the league too, so the biggest concern is just getting enough minutes.
This is a nice spot for an escalator prop too. You can play for five-plus 3s at +330 on Bet365. That implies a 23% hit rate, but Doncic has at least five makes in eight of these last 22 games, a 36% hit rate, and it’s only one more make for a lot of extra juice.
Obi Toppin, over 1.5 threes (-125)
|Nets vs. Knicks||Nets -5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
If we’re being brutally honest, the Knicks season has been over for quite a while now. Remember Bing Bong? How long ago was that?! But the season is officially over now that the Knicks are ruled out of even the play-in race, and that’s been marked by Julius Randle being out for the season with a quad injury.
That means the Knicks are finally looking to the future, and it means New York is finally playing Obi Toppin big minutes. New York’s former lottery pick is just 12th in minutes per game for New York this season at 16.1 per game, and he’s started only seven times, but all that has changed over the past couple weeks.
Five of those starts have come since mid-March, and Toppin has exploded over the past two games with a pair of 20-point games in starts against the ‘Cavs and Magic. He played over 30 minutes in each and is really making the most of his opportunities. Unfortunately, the books have noticed and quickly raised Toppin’s points prop to 18.5 points, which looks about right and doesn’t leave much value there.
The adjustment hasn’t come enough yet on Toppin’s 3-point prop, though. This is the time of year when teams try to stretch out their young big men and develop latent skills, and Toppin has hoisted at least four 3-point attempts in five of his last seven games. He’s a career 28% shooter beyond the arc but has hit 39% of his shots over these last seven, with multiple makes in four of them.
It gets even better. Last game, Toppin attempted a whopping 10 3-pointers! He hit four of them, with both of those numbers career highs. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that 10 attempts leaves quite a ceiling for a line this low.
It’s a small sample size, but we have to ride this little trend at the end of the season. Toppin should keep playing and keep shooting. We can also ride the escalator here in case Toppin does approach 10 attempts again. You can play 3-plus at +270 or 4-plus at +790, also both at FanDuel. Toppin does have games with three and four makes over the last four games.
If you’re sticking with just the traditional prop, I’ll play to -150.
Mitchell Robinson, over 9.5 rebounds (+100)
|Nets vs. Knicks||Nets -5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Toppin isn’t the only young Knicks player getting more playing time lately. It’s been an up-and-down season for Mitchell Robinson — when isn’t it for that guy — but he’s finally getting consistent playing time too, with at least 28 minutes in five straight. He’s another guy who is helped by Randle’s absence, and don’t forget Nerlens Noel is out too.
We know what Robinson will do when he’s out there. His job is to swat shots and crash the glass, and that’s what he does. In 29 games this season with at least 28 minutes played, he’s averaging 11.0 RPG with double-digit boards in 18 of those games. That hits this over 62% of the time, but it gets even better. His rebounding is up later in the season, and he’s over in 14 of the last 18 such game, a 78% hit rate on this prop.
If we’re going to get there, it’s almost certainly going to be because of Robinson crashing the offensive glass. He’s been doing that like crazy lately, averaging 5.1 offensive rebounds per game since the start of March with at least five offensive rebounds in 10 of those 17 games. The Nets are not a good defensive rebounding team at all, listed at 27th in the NBA, so Robinson could clean up the offensive glass against his cross-city rival.
We’re getting even odds on this prop, but our projections have Robinson at 10.7 rebounds and that means the Props Tool puts this one in our favor.
If you want to take a shot at an escalator here, I’d skip the 12-plus and go straight for 14-plus. Robinson has done that nine times this season, and he’s done it in seven of the 29 games with 28-plus minutes.
That’s a 24% hit rate for a prop you can play at +520 at FanDuel (implied 16%) if you want to nibble the chance of a huge game. You can even play 16-plus at +1100. He’s done that five times (17%) versus an implied 8.3%. When Robinson has big rebounding games, he can have monster nights.
Bonus NBA Prop Bets
- Andre Drummond, over 9.5 points (-110 DraftKings): Drummond produces when he’s on the court, and like it or not, he’s playing for the Nets. He’s averaging 11.6 PPG in 21 Nets games with double-digit points in 14 of 21 (67%). He’s also had double-digit rebounds in six straight with nine Nets double-doubles (43%) and you can play that at +175 to play more aggressive.
- Al Horford, over 3.5 assists (+110 DraftKings): Horford is playing and doing more without Robert Williams out of necessity. He’s gone over 3.5 assists in five straight without Timelord and averages 4.1 APG without Williams on the season, including 6.0 APG over the last five. Horford without Timelord is over this line in 10 of 16 Celtics games (63%) so it’s a nice play at plus juice.
- Tomas Satoransky, under 0.5 threes (-225 DraftKings): Sato is starting over the last seven games and racking up assists at 8.1 APG but he’s scored only 5.0 PPG during that stretch and is 0-for-5 on 3s. Satoransky just isn’t a scorer, and he’s made only 18.8% of his 3s on the season and has now played 20 or fewer minutes in three straight despite the start. We probably only need to fade one attempt and we might not even have to do that.