Sunday NBA Player Prop Bets: Three Plays, Including Jayson Tatum & Ben Simmons (March 14)
Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jayson Tatum.
- One former All-Star and two current ones make up the most interesting player props from Sunday's schedule.
- Continue reading to find out the top plays for Draymond Green, Ben Simmons and Jayson Tatum.
It’s Selection Sunday for college hoops, and this year’s tournament is shaping up to be complete and utter madness.
While Division I teams around the country prep to punch their tickets to the big dance, the NBA has nine games on deck to keep you occupied. Sunday’s schedule includes nine teams that are below .500.
However, we’ll see numerous stars in action for the Spurs-Sixers, Jazz-Warriors, and Clippers-Pelicans games, making this underwhelming slate far more desirable.
Today’s props center around one former, and two current All-Stars. We’re dropping some flare into Sunday’s selections by showcasing two props at plus odds to add to the “madness.” Let’s dive in!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Draymond Green under 7.5 points (+110)
|Jazz at Warriors||-6.5|
|Time||4 p.m. ET|
The Warriors are in the midst of a rough three-game stretch. On Thursday, they lost by 26 points on the road versus the Clippers. To make matters worse, they face the Jazz tonight with a back-to-back Monday against the visiting Lakers. The Dubs struggle against teams .500 or better, going 9-17 entering Sunday.
That brings us to Draymond Green, who is averaging a career-low 5.9 PPG this season. When playing against teams that are .500 or better, his scoring average dips slightly to 5.2 PPG. He’s making only 36% of his field goals while putting up a meager 5.5 attempts per game when facing above-average competition.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, Utah enters Sunday’s contest as the second-ranked team in defensive efficiency (107.8). Green played the Jazz back in January and produced a whopping four points with six assists, and four rebounds across 24 minutes. His scoring woes aren’t apparent when looking at the box score, as he’s hit double-figures in three of his last five games. But when factoring in the upper-echelon of competition, Green hasn’t eclipsed 7.5 points in 12 of his previous 15 games against opponents with a winning record, according to Fansure.
The Warriors lost four straight coming into tonight’s tilt, leaving Green as a good bet to see 35+ minutes. Still, he’ll resume his role as the primary facilitator of the Warriors’ offense, but doesn’t offer much in the scoring department against the league’s best. Our projections have Green falling short of 7.5 points, with the under registering a bet quality score of 7 out of 10.
Ben Simmons over 7.5 assists (+108)
|Spurs at 76ers||+2.5|
|Time||6:30 p.m. ET|
Ben Simmons returns to the Philly lineup after missing the previous two contests due to health and safety protocols. Unfortunately, he’ll be without MVP candidate Joel Embiid, who will miss the next two weeks after suffering a bone bruise to his left knee in Friday’s win over the Wizards. The Sixers won their past two games against below-.500 teams, but Sunday’s contest against the Spurs (19-15 overall) poses a more significant threat.
The Sixers are stellar on their homecourt, going 16-3 overall entering Sunday with an impressive 10-6 ATS as home favorites. Simmons takes on a more prominent role in the offense when Embiid is off the floor, seeing his usage rate rise 2.5% according to Action’s On/Off Tool. Embiid is often Simmons’ safety valve, his reliable go-to source who bails him out whenever the Sixers need a bucket. In fact, according to PBPStats. Simmons dished out 50 assists to Embiid this season, which ranks second on the team behind Tobias Harris (56).
Simmons has only topped 7.5 assists in six of his last 13 games. Still, he’s averaging 8.4 assists per game against opponents .500 or better, while also averaging 8.1 assists against Western Conference teams this season. Philly comes into this contest facing the ninth-best team in defensive rating, but according to Hashtag Basketball, the Spurs allow opposing point guards to hand out 8.0 assists per game this season.
There’s no doubt that Simmons will have his work cut out for him with the Sixers’ big man out of the lineup. But expect Simmons to spread the ball around and look to get his shooters open against a Spurs team that’s let up 47.6% shooting from beyond the arc over their last three contests. Our projections have Simmons tallying over eight assists, with a bet quality score of 8 out of 10.
Jayson Tatum over 24.5 points (-110)
|Celtics at Rockets||-11|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
The Celtics are 11-point favorites over the shorthanded Houston Rockets on Sunday. With Christian Wood, John Wall and Eric Gordon all missing the contest, this has the makings of a blowout. But not so fast.
Boston comes into Sunday 17-20 overall ATS. So while there may not be much talent on the floor for Houston, the Celtics aren’t a lock to run away in this contest, as Boston is 0-7 on the road ATS in its last seven games. If this trend holds, this is a perfect game script for Jayson Tatum to light up the scoreboard.
In his first game following the All-Star break, Tatum dropped 31 points in a road loss to the Brooklyn Nets. This season, the four-year pro has faired better on the road, increasing his scoring production from 24.3 PPG at home to 25.8 PPG when traveling. He’s also played well against sub-.500 teams, scoring more than 24.5 points in six of his last seven games versus opponents with a losing record, according to Fansure. There should be plenty of opportunities for Tatum to get buckets with the game total hovering around 223.5, with Boston scoring 117.5.
Boston hasn’t defeated Houston in their last five meetings dating back to March 3, 2018. Lock in Tatum for the over here, as our projections have him scoring 25.5 points against the hapless Rockets.